Is Covid-19 Impacting You, Your Carving or Your Local Mtn.?

[bumpyride]

The whole pandemic started with 1 case.  Then it spread, and it doesn't matter who, what country, or how many.  It started with 1 case.

The whole cycle can again be started with 1 case unless all protocols are followed.

Now it's running rampant in the US.  Until it's virtually eliminated (which is probably impossible given the state of the laissez faire attitude of some politicians and a good portion of the public), it will continue to spread in waves.  There will be pockets of infection, and those will spread, just as you see the maps showing where the cases are ramping up, and those red circles continue to expand.

All it take is 1 case, and it can be asymptomatic, to start the cycle all over again.

Just spoke with our good friends at Big Sky.  They're 40 years old.  The resort closed down, and he is going down to Bozeman almost every other day to buy guns and ammunition with absolutely no protection.  They're having friends over in the evenings and playing games.  No one knows who has what, and they don't seem to be worried about it, and that seems to be the case as I watch the full time residents up here congregate.

Until it starts striking those that think they are immune, you're going to continue to have the disease spread.  Nearly 40% of patients who were hospitalized in the US were under 55 and 20% were between 20 and 44 .  When hospitals are overcrowded and ventilators are not available, those that think they are immune are going to start dying in increasing numbers, and that may wake up some of those that are not too worried about it.

Hopefully those of us that  do become infected and survive will acquire immunity (although that's a still unanswered question).

Be vigilant to excess and cross your fingers.

When the vaccine comes, you'll still have the anti-vaxers, to contend with.

 

[JRAZZ]

https://fair.org/home/you-dont-need-to-believe-china-about-chinas-coronavirus-success/?fbclid=IwAR3dm9UB_7d2aEg1ZxWgpv0PL_sqC91pgrF5sGe-eGMH0I9eHVD02yYc2W4

 

[bigwavedave]

7 minutes ago, bumpyride said:

....he is going down to Bozeman almost every other day to buy guns and ammunition with absolutely no protection.

....so they can protect their stash of toilet paper?

[bumpyride]

Edited April 3, 2020 by bumpyride

[Chouinard]

19 hours ago, JRAZZ said:

19 hours ago, Jack M said:

Do you believe numbers reported by China?

Do you believe the numbers reported by the US government?

If I had to choose between the two I'd go with the US government. Confirmed counts rise as completed test counts rise...go figure! Normalized data tells the story.

 

Dr. Birx explains it clearly.  

 

[bumpyride]

What does flattening of the curve really look like when we have idiots surrounding us?

 

[BobD]

Do you believe numbers reported by China? 

 

That's why we used to have an epidemiologist embedded with the Chinese office that investigates possible virus outbreaks.The US also had a team of specialist on the ground in China, ostensibly to aid the Chinese. The real value of these burdens on the US tax payer was direct intelligence of what might be happening during an outbreak. A value that was not appreciated by the current administration, who essentially axed the positions.

[lowrider]

Is it possible the bottom six states on the graph will not spike ? Based on what i'm seeing in Canada I think not !

 

[barryj]

 

[SunSurfer]

3 hours ago, barryj said:

 

Published by these guys, who have reasons to have an editorial bias (American based Falun Gong organisation).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Tang_Dynasty_Television

Take everything, unless it is from a apolitical source, with a large dose of scepticism. Keep your brain switched on. They could be correct, but we have no easy way of fact checking their allegation.

Edited April 4, 2020 by SunSurfer

[st_lupo]

Hey everybody, take a couple of minutes and give yourselves a pat on the back.  Seriously!  Good job making the sacrifices necessary to keep you, your loved ones and the folks around here safe.  It isn't easy, especially when the effect of our efforts aren't visible for weeks on end, and where the end result isn't something great, but just less awful.  There was an awesome info graphic I saw a couple of weeks ago that shows the effect of individuals contribution, so yes even if there are jerks that aren't doing their bit, you are making a contribution.  

[Chouinard]

15 hours ago, lowrider said:

 

Is it possible the bottom six states on the graph will not spike ? Based on what i'm seeing in Canada I think not !

 

Rightly so...Michigan is a hot spot and Ontario is tracking right along on a per capita basis because even though Ontario is geographically immense it has concentrated populations along the Great Lakes.  It’s going to spike everywhere. The question is whether or not there is going to be the same pitch on the way up and down everywhere. The curve (above) is the people/1000 affected not the raw count of cases.

[lowrider]

Am I correct to conclude that low density population only means it will take longer but will spike in time ? What will happen when on the backside of the curve. Is a repeat expected once people co mingle ? 

[SunSurfer]

13 hours ago, lowrider said:

Am I correct to conclude that low density population only means it will take longer but will spike in time ? What will happen when on the backside of the curve. Is a repeat expected once people co mingle ? 

1/ The origin of the epidemic is an infection in a single person.

2/ The virus is not alive. It is a piece of ribo-nucleic acid (RNA) that hijacks the production machinery of cells to create a gazillion copies of itself. This results in a the sufferer a) developing an illness of varying severity and b) starting to shed the virus into their immediate environment. The sufferers immune system over time acts to wipe out the cells that have the virus and the sufferer recovers and stops shedding the virus.

3/ If someone comes in contact with the sufferer during the time they're shedding virus and the virus becomes attached to the contact person's cells the process repeats. If nobody comes into contact with the sufferer during the time they are shedding the virus the cycle of spread stops THERE.

4/ Unless you eradicate the virus completely by finding & isolating the origin cases, and all known contacts, the spread will reignite, just like a forest fire can restart from embers. So YES, a repeat is "expected once people co mingle."

New Zealand is a first world island nation with a democratic, open, & non-corrupt government, and just under 5 million people. We have clear physical borders, not even Michael Phelps could swim here and sneak in. Isolation of cases and tracking and isolation of all contacts was begun from Case No 1. On 21st March we had 52 total cases altogether. On 22nd March the government announced a lockdown would begin nationwide at midnight on March 25th. In NZ, as of yesterday, we have had 950 confirmed or suspected cases, under 20 people in hospital across the country with Covid-19, 2 patients in ICU, and 1 death. But despite testing increasing, and now made available to anyone showing symptoms, we are seeing new confirmed and suspected cases essentially flat for the last 13 days and the ratio of positive tests : tests performed decreasing. The actual new diagnosis numbers (daily sum: new test confirmed + symptomatically likely but currently testing -ve) from 22 March are - 50,53,50,78,85,83,63,75,58,61,89,71,82. 

Our epidemiologists are starting to talk about not just "flattening the curve" and spreading out the infection in our country over a prolonged period of time, but actually raising the possibility of eradicating the virus within our borders. The majority of our cases are directly linked to overseas travellers, with approx. 1% of all cases "community spread" where the original source is unknown. There is a long way to go before we could say that eradication was likely, but we do appear to have flattened the curve. If we don't eradicate the virus then our health officials and government expect spot breakouts once the highest level lockdown (Currently Level 4 - the highest - on a 4 level system) is stopped.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by SunSurfer

[lowrider]

Thanks that's very helpful to put in context as to what is happening and not happening bother here in Canada and south of here.

[ursle]

And this, that worked for China, they tested, tracked down all interactions with infected people, got all the infected people out of their homes, (they found out early that home care infected others in the family), and kept testing, and removing, and still, go anywhere, an infrared temp is taken entering buildings, leaving buildings, entering public transport, etc, and it's kept 1.5 trillion people away from what's looming on this continent. 

They infrared test, and if hot, blood test and if necessary, Cat scan,  there is hope.

[bobble]

@SunSurfer one thing i'm not clear on... does the virus ever leave your body?

 

[lowrider]

5 minutes ago, bobble said:

@SunSurfer one thing i'm not clear on... does the virus ever leave your body?

 

I have a feeling your not going tp like this answer.

[barryj]

Inan Dogan , PHD Economist and Industrial Engineer Produced Two Incredible Articles With Chilling Predictions!........

March 20 - "Hell Is Coming: Here Is The Mathematical Proof"

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hell-is-coming-here-is-the-mathematical-proof-822824/

April 3 - "Hell Is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars"

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hell-is-coming-and-we-sold-out-our-national-security-for-a-few-dollars-826614/

[SunSurfer]

@bobble "Does the virus ever leave your body?"

The short answer is generally YES.

For some viruses e.g. Hepatitis B, a long term carrier state can exist. (potential for infection of others remains, by blood borne transmission)

For Covid-19, it's a new virus, we don't have enough information yet to know whether everyone completely clears the virus, what kind of antibody response develops, and how long the protection from that might last.

The virus doesn't leave. Remember it's not a living thing. Not even "It's life Jim, but not as we know it."
The virus is destroyed by your immune system.

For a short and slightly technical jargon loaded piece see below. You may have to look up definitions of words you are not familiar with.

https://www.immunology.org/public-information/bitesized-immunology/pathogens-and-disease/immune-responses-viruses

April 4th: 1039 total, 89 new cases.

Edited April 6, 2020 by SunSurfer
daily update

[lowrider]

Sunsurfer I thought you were going to have a virologist put him to sleep instead of an anesthetist .

[lowrider]

1 hour ago, barryj said:

Inan Dogan , PHD Economist and Industrial Engineer Produced Two Incredible Articles With Chilling Predictions!........

March 20 - "Hell Is Coming: Here Is The Mathematical Proof"

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hell-is-coming-here-is-the-mathematical-proof-822824/

April 3 - "Hell Is Coming and We Sold Out Our National Security For A Few Dollars"

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/hell-is-coming-and-we-sold-out-our-national-security-for-a-few-dollars-826614/

Stark reality is called fake news doesn't this make for some lovely bedtime reading. We are a  cheery bunch !

[SunSurfer]

2 hours ago, lowrider said:

Sunsurfer I thought you were going to have a virologist put him to sleep instead of an anesthetist .

When I was in medical school in the late 1970s immunology was relatively simple compared with what is understood about it today. Only specialist immunologists really have some idea of what's going on. The rest of us medics just look on in awe and wonder at how complex and amazing the human immune system is.

[lowrider]

6 hours ago, SunSurfer said:

When I was in medical school in the late 1970s immunology was relatively simple compared with what is understood about it today. Only specialist immunologists really have some idea of what's going on. The rest of us medics just look on in awe and wonder at how complex and amazing the human immune system is.

Seems that while the immune system is awesome some human brains not so much !  Make immunologist's Great Again !

[bigwavedave]

13 hours ago, bobble said:

@SunSurfer one thing i'm not clear on... does the virus ever leave your body?

 

That's an interesting question. Like Sun says generally yes, but you might be thinking of chicken pox and the virus that lies dormant in nerve tissue to later cause shingles. There's a lot we don't know yet about this new virus.

Treat everyone you don't live with as a potential carrier. ...and don't touch your face!