Climate Change

[SunSurfer]

10 hours ago, BlueB said:

For that to happen, the entire surface of Greenland would have to be covered by more than 1.2 km thick ice. It's hard to buy, no matter what Wiki says. 

https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/greenland-ice-sheet-3/

Not just Wikipedia, US government body NOAA says 7.4 metres of sea level rise.

[west carven]

howdy

A new NASA animation visualizes the ebb and flow of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions around the globe — and it's absolutely horrifying.⁠

[st_lupo]

Really cool, but I suggest bypassing instagram (and the related comment trainwrecks) and going right to the source that describes, in detail, what we're looking at: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5110

The waterfall diagram is especially interesting as it shows the ebb and flow of carbon into/out-of land ecosystems but how fossil fuel burning overrides all other factors to result in a net carbon release.

[west carven]

howdy st_lupo

thanks for being my A.I. (another investigator), i was looking for the original nasa source...

yes, the earth is flat and if we keep driving we will eventually fall off... haha... 

[BlueB]

Those are animations, right? 

[st_lupo]

Not sure I get the full question.  Yes those are animations, as in they should be moving pictures.  If the the question is a bit more subtle; they yes those are computer generated animations, not direct satellite imaging.  But as far as I understand about the dataset that was used to generate the animations it is based partially on computer modelling anchored/correlated to a framework of data gathered from satellite-based CO2 measurements:

A bit of explanation about the GEOS dataset is written here: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4

"""

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) provides the most complete dataset tracking the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the main driver of climate change. Every day, OCO-2 measures sunlight reflected from Earth’s surface to infer the dry-air column-averaged CO2 mixing ratio and provides around 100,000 cloud-free observations. Despite these advances, OCO-2 data contain many gaps where sunlight is not present or where clouds or aerosols are too thick to retrieve CO2 data. In order to fill gaps and provide science and applications users a spatially complete product, OCO-2 data are assimilated into NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), a complex modeling and data assimilation system used for studying the Earth’s weather and climate. GEOS is also informed by satellite observations of nighttime lights and vegetation greenness along with about 1 million weather observations collected every hour. These data help scientists infer CO2 mixing ratios even when a direct OCO-2 observation is not present and provide additional information on the altitude of CO2 plumes that the satellite is not able to see. Together, OCO-2 and GEOS create one of the most complete pictures of CO2.

"""

[BlueB]

Yes, as in computer generated images. Thank you. 

[SunSurfer]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/28/climate-crisis-quarter-of-european-ski-resorts-scarce-snow

News article describing a specific climate change projection for European ski resorts.

[leeho730]

All I know for certain is that Olympic level and world ranking skiers are concerned about warm weathers.

“Mikaela Shiffrin, Federica Brignone and Aleksander Aamodt Kilde are among nearly 200 athletes from multiple disciplines who have signed a letter addressed to the International Ski and Snowboard Federation demanding action over climate change.

The letter was written by Austrian downhiller Julian Schütter, an ambassador for the nonprofit organization Protect Our Winters, known as POW.

 

Olympic cross-country skiing champion Jessie Diggins and Freeride World Tour championsArianna Tricomi and Xavier de le Rue were also among the letter’s signees.“

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/olympics/news/alpine-skiing-climate-change-world-cup-schedule

[patmoore]

I'll be in Val Gardena in late January.  Hope coditions are good.

Increasingly, even some of the skeptics are acknowleging that climate change exists.  Still, many of them insist the cause is purely cyclical, not anthropogenic. Hopefully they'll eventually pull their collective heads out of the sand.

1927 saw a "Hundred Year Flood" in southern Vermont.  Then Hurricane Irene caused devastating destruction in 2011 followed by this past July's catastrophic flooding.  Don't count on another hundred years before the next  event.  When Irene hit, we had a condo in Proctorsville.  We had the 3rd and 4th floors but the ground floor units had four feet of water in them and we acquired an upside down Subaru.  Fortunately we sold that condo a year and a half ago. It got hammered again last month.

 

I put together a composite of shots of Pie Alley, the driveway for the condo, in 1927, 2011, and 2023. 

Here's a fifty year old brochure our meteorological team put out.  A hurricane tracking map was on the other side.  In addition to my on air duties I taught Introductory Meteorology and Climatology at the University of South Floida.  I never dreamed how rapidly climate change would become.

[leeho730]

4 minutes ago, patmoore said:

I'll be in Val Gardena in late January.  Hope coditions are good.

Increasingly, even some of the skeptics are acknowleging that climate change exists.  Still, many of them insist the cause is purely cyclical, not anthropogenic. Hopefully they'll eventually pull their collective heads out of the sand.

1927 saw a "Hundred Year Flood" in southern Vermont.  Then Hurricane Irene caused devastating destruction in 2011 followed by this past July's catastrophic flooding.  Don't count on another hundred years before the next  event.  When Irene hit, we had a condo in Proctorsville.  We had the 3rd and 4th floors but the ground floor units had four feet of water in them and we acquired an upside down Subaru.  Fortunately we sold that condo a year and a half ago. It got hammered again last month.

 

I put together a composite of shots of Pie Alley, the driveway for the condo, in 1927, 2011, and 2023. 

Here's a fifty year old brochure our meteorological team put out.  A hurricane tracking map was on the other side.  In addition to my on air duties I taught Introductory Meteorology and Climatology at the University of South Floida.  I never dreamed how rapidly climate change would become.

I guess science is hard to understand, but insurance premium isn’t…

Some places in Australia, insurance companies either refuse to insure the properties or for those that offer, $30K per year…

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/where-home-insurance-costs-30-000-a-year-or-you-can-t-get-a-policy-at-all-20230721-p5dq69.html

[SunSurfer]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/03/major-australian-ski-resort-perisher-closes-some-lifts-for-season-due-to-lack-of-snow

Make turns while you can.

[leeho730]

1 hour ago, SunSurfer said:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/03/major-australian-ski-resort-perisher-closes-some-lifts-for-season-due-to-lack-of-snow

Make turns while you can.

Yeah, this year was really hot. I skied on 21st August in Perisher. They supposedly have had 30cm of new snow over the weekend but when I went there on Monday, snow all melted. 

There is a smaller ski field, called Selwyn, that just recovered from the devastating bushfire that destroyed their chairlifts in 2019. Then COVID hit and they couldn’t operate properly for 2 years. They were expecting to make some money this year… But they had no snow!
 

It was the hottest winter recorded. And we also expect hottest summer this year.

Personally I believe the writing’s on the wall for Australian ski fields. For me, I used to have a ski house in Methven so I’ll buy there again.

[SunSurfer]

6 hours ago, leeho730 said:

Personally I believe the writing’s on the wall for Australian ski fields. For me, I used to have a ski house in Methven so I’ll buy there again.

@leeho730 Mt Hutt is busy mid week and bonkers busy at weekends in our shortening ski season. Rode there for 5 days this year during August. Managed to carve in shortish bursts with the traffic and rapidly lumped up snow.

[leeho730]

4 hours ago, SunSurfer said:

@leeho730 Mt Hutt is busy mid week and bonkers busy at weekends in our shortening ski season. Rode there for 5 days this year during August. Managed to carve in shortish bursts with the traffic and rapidly lumped up snow.

Can’t be worse than during the mid week at Perisher. Besides, when I lived at Methven I used to ski at club fields (I have a hardboot split board set up just for this) and around hill on the weekend. Or have a rest!

Edited September 3, 2023 by leeho730

[SunSurfer]

The actual limits of human beings ability to compensate for heat.

https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021

Comment on what the significance of that research is in a warming world.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/08/deadly-humid-heatwaves-to-spread-rapidly-as-climate-warms-study

[SunSurfer]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/18/australia-must-urgently-adapt-to-extreme-weather-or-face-soaring-premiums-insurers-warn

Insurance company actuaries believe in climate change whether you do or not.

 

And now climate change is making it more difficult to grow the seeds which farmers use to grow their crops. This report from the USA.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/16/seed-farmers-climate-change

[BlueB]

Has anyone noticed how the "global warming" narrative recently became "climate change"? 

[Corey]

1 hour ago, BlueB said:

Has anyone noticed how the "global warming" narrative recently became "climate change"? 

Not recently. Some people struggle with knowing the difference between "climate" and "weather". Cue cries of "where's your global warming now?!?" on any cold day. 

This name change helped clarify that. Not much, but a little. 

[west carven]

howdy

just saw this and thought this is not good... winter looks like a skid mark in these parts...

‘Strong’ El Niño likely to bring more snow to these states ...

Snowfall during all El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). (NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux)

Snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters (January-March) compared to the 1991-2020 average (after the long-term trend has been removed). (NOAA Climate.gov map, based on ERA5 data from 1959-2023 analyzed by Michelle L’Heureux.)

[SunSurfer]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/14/us-national-climate-assessment-global-warming-report

USA warming faster than average, US government report. Global heating impacts are outside your window.

[JohnE]

I always thought that my snowboarding career would end due to age. I'm 67 and still pretty hard-charging but time will not be denied.

Now I'm wondering if my career will be ended early by Global Warming. Seems like seasons are getting shorter. Here in Denver today on November 14th, it's 75 degrees and sunny. We've only had one 5" snowfall about 2 weeks ago. Went out for a bike ride today in shorts & t-shirt. It's been "beautiful" weather all fall. 

 Think that most of our snowboarding careers will come to an early end due to the climate?  

[SunSurfer]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/14/us-national-climate-assessment-global-warming-report

Been wondering the same thing myself - old age vs. global heating, for a long time. Watching seasons get shorter, snow bases get shallower,  snowmaking technicians saying the nights are too warm, a big local commercial field only just avoid going under completely and not have a secure future.

No matter what the human race does the dye is cast for the remainder of my riding  career. Make the most of your own remaining health and snow. 

[BlueB]

5 hours ago, JohnE said:

Now I'm wondering if my career will be ended early by Global Warming.

No it won't. The Global Warming is dead, all we hear about now is Climate Change talk. That will end your career, but not for the lack of snow, but because the hill will be out of your 15 min allowed range. 

[ShortcutToMoncton]

Not sure what you’re talking about there. Global Warming is still a fact, but Climate Change is simply a better and more accurate description to use.

For the next couple decades, variability will be the name of the game, especially for those of us in marginal areas.