What will happen here at $10 /gallon?

[trailertrash]

Will Jack burn his BMW like this guy?

[pebu]

So he douses his bmw with the gas that's way too expensive in order to light it on fire....

[KingCrimson]

Reminds me of some environmentalists who lit an RV dealership on fire to "protect" the environment.

Now, I live a good 10 miles from the dealer, and the smoke was taking up half the sky..

Brilliant!

[ursle]

Not to threadjack...but

going into the third year in my prius after my last tweeks

it's gone the last 800 miles averaging 56.1

ymmv

[trailertrash]

Not to threadjack...but

going into the third year in my prius after my last tweeks

it's gone the last 800 miles averaging 56.1

ymmv

exactly, how is $10 gallon going to affect us, and our snowboarding?

[Dan]

Will Jack burn his BMW like this guy?

I'm already car pooling a lot more, that's for sure. I used to drive up by myself all the time, especially mid-week. Now I'm getting more and more reluctant to do that.

4 in the car and splitting gas costs at $10 per gallon is the same as driving up by yourself at $2.50. That being the case, even at $10 per gallon, the cost of filling the tank won't keep me from riding.

But, when they jack up the lift tickets because their operating costs have gone up, who knows?

[Mike T]

All I know is I am sooooooo glad that I live 3 miles from work and 19 miles from snowboarding! Riding my bike to work 4 days a week, all my errands are done on the 5th day. Filled my gas tank last Sunday, I am going to try to make that tank last 6 weeks. Last one went 3 weeks, but it included a 240 mile round trip to Mt Hood.

[Justin A.]

It will no longer be profitable for me to go to work in my current vehicle when prices hit about $7 a gallon or so. I'm currently in the process of buying a 70mpg scooter for commuting, and I'm also looking into moving closer to work so I could ride my bike instead of burn. It'll be interesting to see how this current referendum in congress plays out.

[Derf]

I bike to work 2 or 3 days a week (4 days/week), even if my new job is 20 km from home. I changed my driving habit, my gas consumption went fom 9-10 L/100km to ~7 L/100km, I drive around 7000-8000 km per year and fill my car once every 3 weeks. I don't care much about gas price.

[queequeg]

Once the american auto industry gets its head out of its ass, and the public at large starts to own up to the reality of things, I think the results will be very positive.

This is my somewhat optimistic perspective:

Hopefully: better public transportation. Countries that have been playing the full price of oil all over europe allready have much better metro systems and excellent railway systems connecting them with other cities and countries. The state of american public transportation is positively primeval. It's pathetic. The fewer people that own cars the more public transportation will be important to economic sustainability and development. I would imagine that companies that produce light rails and subways and bus lines are already coming up with public transportation proposals for cities that don't have good public transport. I know I'd be all over that like flies to **** if that's what I did for a living.

Another positive thing: fewer centerless tracts of suburban wasteland, and more livable urban and suburban town centers. people will want to live closer to where they work, and they will want to have all of their life close by. I see that as a very positive thing.

In the short term, people will stop using their cars, or start driving more wisely.

I ride a bike to work and around town so it won't affect me much (at all) except for maybe there will be fewer cars on the road to deal with. Its not for everyone, but I love it, It's a short seven mile ride, from queens to Times square and its a great way to start my day. I like taking the train sometimes but nothing beats riding over the east river via the triboro bridge and then through central park on the way to work (although that's the long way so I only take it when I've woken up early and am feeling leisurely). It's also good for me. Hooray for that. Its way faster the driving or taking the subway.

Driving a car in New York City is a pretty stupid thing to do in the first place, so maybe the price of gas will knock some sense into these people. One of the things that I always notice about people driving cars is the urgent rush they are always in to get to the next stop light. This is a tremendous waste of fuel. As a cyclist, I am not in the habit of pedaling hard (or at all) towards stop lights. I know I am just going to have to displace that energy that I spent getting up to speed, stopping for the light if I do. The vast majority of cars however, are giving the engine gas right up to the moment that they *must* hit the breaks for the light, rather than just coasting towards the red light at their current rate, and waiting for it to change before applying the accelerator. I imagine that drivers don't think of this because their relationship with the amount of energy they are using to propel themselves is less intimate (for lack of a better term) than that of a bicyclist's. I also think I see this a lot because cars have this weird psychological need to pass bicyclists on the street, even if the bicyclist is moving at or faster than the speed limit and they are headed towards a red light.

I'm all for people buying energy efficient vehicles but it seems to me that there are a lot of ways people can reduce their fuel consumption by simply changing their driving habits. This would also make them much better drivers, and god knows there's plenty of room for that around here (NYC).

I grew up in foreign countries. My father lives in Rome. Right now, we are just beginning to get a taste for what the rest of the world pays for in gas. The american SUV, is going to be a relic of the past in a very short while--good riddance as far as I'm concerned. Those things are ****ing embarrassing (I've got no problem with them being used appropriately, and engineered for appropriate use ... eg, I don't have a problem with your FJ-40, or what have you ... but there is no excuse for the "exhibition", or the "esclade", or all the other show-and-tell SUVs). What I REALLY don't get is the current trend of "hybrid suv's" its like, "hey lets engineer a fuel efficient engine that reclaims energy from various places and efficiently harnesses multiple energy sources, and then totally sabotage our own efforts by slapping a bulky, heavy totally non-aerodynamic body on the thing." Brilliant. I can't wait for the SUV to be a thing of the past.

I don't think cars are bad overall, but I do thing that many of our American urban, economic and social problems stem from our *dependence* upon automobiles--(not just fuel and energy problems). And we are pathetically, heavily dependent upon the automobile as a nation (which is interesting when you consider how stagnant automotive technology has been for the last century). I think if we embrace the changes that are coming, we can only gain from them.

Snowboarding is of course, a totally different issue. I'm always going to get to the mountain any way that I can. For me, that has almost always meant carpooling and taking busses. Taking busses is cheap and no doubt, more environmentally friendly than driving solo in a car or carpooling with people (it is also surprisingly convenient!). Carpooling has always made sense to me. Most of the trips I took last year had four or more people to a car, so when gas hits $10/gal that will be 2.50 gallon each ... a price I will happily pay.

[ursle]

wish this was an episode of twighlight zone, I would rewind to the gore election and try with him, can't fathom one man doing so much damage to the world as I knew it

so...leisure pursuits are going to go back to something the idle rich do or did, private resorts will be around, but nobody is gonna run a resort that doesn't make money

jmho

[Allee]

It's already making a difference to my plans for the summer. I went camping last weekend at my favourite campground in Waterton lakes, a three hour drive, and went through $65 in gas. That was distressing, that's for sure. At that sort of $$ I won't be going solo too many times this summer. I'll be trying to split costs with my GF's as much as I can when we head out into the hills, and the same when I go snowboarding this winter.

[Gecko]

I lived in Japan for 3 years...during that time I lived on my bike, my scooter or the trains. I even went snowboarding by train a few times. But the thing that was most enjoyable was just travel by train and the cost effectiveness of it...I could get to Tokyo for about $5...its about as far away from me as Providence RI is from me now but that costs $12 which means $50 for my wife and I go spend the day in providence...I can drive (even now) and park for less than that and it's even more cost effective for me to drive to Boston which is really sad because I have no interest in actually driving there. I really hope public transport becomes more cost effective here in New England but in truth its more likely that I will move to someplace that has better public transport (like Portland Oregon)

[photodad2001]

I lived in Japan for 3 years...during that time I lived on my bike, my scooter or the trains. I even went snowboarding by train a few times. But the thing that was most enjoyable was just travel by train and the cost effectiveness of it...I could get to Tokyo for about $5...its about as far away from me as Providence RI is from me now but that costs $12 which means $50 for my wife and I go spend the day in providence...I can drive (even now) and park for less than that and it's even more cost effective for me to drive to Boston which is really sad because I have no interest in actually driving there. I really hope public transport becomes more cost effective here in New England but in truth its more likely that I will move to someplace that has better public transport (like Portland Oregon)

That's a great method for people who live in and around large metropolitans. I live just over 3 miles from the nearest public transportation stop. I guess if I found a place to park my car without it being towed that'd be a possibility. Haven't fully looked into that. Unfortunately Americans are unique to Europeans and people in Japan in that most of us work much further from their homes. My place of work is 30 miles from my house, and like I said, the nearest stop for the bus is over 3 miles. It's going to require that smaller cities put in more bus routes, and maybe even add trains in order for that to work for the rest of us. Right now our country isn't designed for public transportation the way other places in the world are.

[skategoat]

Photodad hit the nail on the head - North American cities are designed for cars. Not just for work but for leisure, shopping, everything. So while it's great to want to live like Europeans, we simply don't have the density nor the infrastructure to support it.

And most municipal governments are broke. So what's it going to take to build better transit, bike paths, etc.? Tax dollars. There's going to be a whole lot of pain coming.

[Galen]

Everyone should see this movie! It's clean, economical, and the technology is proven. Even with current dirty coal generated electricity, it produces less then half the green house emissions. You never hear any of the politicians on either side talk about it, so it must be a big part of the answer:smashfrea

[b0ardski]

I see the price of copper going thru the roof as we start transitioning to electric drive units. Whether the power comes from hydgeogen cells, internal combustion i.e. fryoil/biofuel/propane/petrol, kinetic & solar charged batteries; the common denominator is electric drive motors. R&D of which has been suppressed not supported since before the big3 killed Studebaker:(

Mining for copper will become too lucerative/nescesary to stop new mines. Less enviromental impact than drilling/burning whats left of the oil in the crust.

As for my riding, traveling to other areas will become cost prohibitive. I may need to move closer to my home area to use my pass.

[queequeg]

That's a great method for people who live in and around large metropolitans. I live just over 3 miles from the nearest public transportation stop. I guess if I found a place to park my car without it being towed that'd be a possibility. Haven't fully looked into that. Unfortunately Americans are unique to Europeans and people in Japan in that most of us work much further from their homes. My place of work is 30 miles from my house, and like I said, the nearest stop for the bus is over 3 miles. It's going to require that smaller cities put in more bus routes, and maybe even add trains in order for that to work for the rest of us. Right now our country isn't designed for public transportation the way other places in the world are.

Yep. Not everyone can bike to work or take the train/bus. I guarantee you that in the next five to ten years, overall access to public transportation is going to change in the United States. Areas that have little or no public transportation access are going to wither economically, if they don't develop it quickly. The cost of failing to develop sustainable transportation will be much greater than the cost of sucking it up and taking care of it. Implementing public transportation will become a *particularly* urgent need in towns and suburban centers as the cost of driving your own vehicle become increasingly prohibitive in the middle-to-lower income brackets and down, because otherwise the workers will not be able to afford to drive to work--and if that happens we have a major economic crisis on our hands.

The american suburbs are largely designed around automotive transportation (and actually owe their existence to it), but that isn't to say that these areas can't develop decent public transportation. My guess is that they will, (that or the phenomenon of the suburban ghetto will become increasingly familiar). I think public transport will start as a need to get people to their jobs in an economically viable way, but hopefully, this will also lead to a lot more suburban areas developing more local businesses etc as people are less inclined to get in the car to go into town on errands and don't want to commute all the way into the city just to buy groceries and such.

Living out in the country where there is no public transport is something only the wealthy are going to be able to afford.

I think it's going to be a major social and economic crisis, and be very painful but assuming that that people own up to what has to happen, it could actually end up being very good for this country.

[skategoat]

Because there is a pressing need for public transportation doesn't mean it will happen. There seems to be a pressing need for affordable medicare in the U.S. and I don't see anything being done about it.

Do you think, in the U.S., with the underlying resistance to new taxes, that Joe Middle America is going to be okay with allocating his tax dollars towards transit? No, public transit is for them other folk. Do you think he's going to easily give up his truck which he equates with personal freedom? Ain't gonna happen.

Instead, we'll see increased pressure to reduce gasoline taxes and an increased effort to "stabilize" the supply of oil. Already, Bush wants to end the ban on off-shore drilling. Who knows, maybe the next Prez will find evidence of Scuds in Alberta and launch an effort to liberate Albertans from the clutches of the evil socialists in Ottawa.

[photodad2001]

I recently came back from Miami Florida. I've gone down there for the past few years, but I recently saw something this year that made a huge impact on how I veiw this problem. Harleys and crotch rockets were all the rage when I've been down there before. However, this year.... I saw very few motor bikes at all. That is unless you consider scooters. I know all you power hungry bikers think scooters are for dorks or the Sting fans trying to be ultra sheik. No, the biker bar my dad wanted to show me had 2 Harley's and about a dozen skoots. America is not going to be the same. Windsurfing Magazine had an interesting article about where the money goes to when you buy a full rig. Because most of the products are petrolium based, Osama Bin Whoever gets most of the money.

[Allee]

My GF's and I spent the day out in K country yesterday (about an hour's drive from Calgary, between the city and Banff), and we decided to check out a few of the close-in campgrounds to see where we want to camp next weekend. It's a long weekend here for all intents and purposes, Canada Day is Tue but most of the city decided to take Monday off, especially as all the kids are now off school. So as you can guess, the place was packed.

We spoke to a few people who told us that to get a spot at any of the K country campgrounds for the weekend, you have to come and pitch the tent and pay for the spot by WEDNESDAY. Now these campgrounds have always been busy, but it's suddenly become VERY obvious that nobody is heading to anywhere that's more than a couple of hours out. There's also a noticeable lack of RV's on the roads this year. Last weekend in Waterton there were dozens of them, more than I'd ever seen, but most of them looked like they were parked for the summer. On a perfect weekend in a busy tourist spot, there were only five tents.

The gas prices are really starting to bite. My parents were telling me that in New Zealand the price is up to $2.15 per litre ($8.12 per gallon). They're down to one car and Dad does as much errand running as he can during the day - when he gets to use the courier company's gas...

[queequeg]

Because there is a pressing need for public transportation doesn't mean it will happen. There seems to be a pressing need for affordable medicare in the U.S. and I don't see anything being done about it.

Do you think, in the U.S., with the underlying resistance to new taxes, that Joe Middle America is going to be okay with allocating his tax dollars towards transit? No, public transit is for them other folk. Do you think he's going to easily give up his truck which he equates with personal freedom? Ain't gonna happen.

Instead, we'll see increased pressure to reduce gasoline taxes and an increased effort to "stabilize" the supply of oil. Already, Bush wants to end the ban on off-shore drilling. Who knows, maybe the next Prez will find evidence of Scuds in Alberta and launch an effort to liberate Albertans from the clutches of the evil socialists in Ottawa.

This isn't really a very applicable comparison. Oil is something we have a limited supply of, the problems we have with medicaid/health coverage in this country aren't controlled by the same factors in terms of a terminal market supply. Besides not having decent (or any) medical insurance coverage - while expensive, and dangerous is not something that will prevent (the vast majority) people from getting to and from their jobs, or being able to earn significantly more than they spend getting to and from work. In that sense, the medicaid problem is less of a national *economic* crisis, Oil however is, because it will affect the vast majority of this countries workers ability to commute to and from work, and it will affect the amount of disposable income people have drastically. Health insurance certainly affects everyone, but only when they are sick. This will affect everyone, sick or well, and in a big way.

My point is, this is likely to affect the national economy systemically and on a grand scale in a way that our healthcare problems do not--and that will create an urgent need for change.

As far as middle america giving up their pickup trucks and suvs, they already are. People who NEED these vehicles will keep them, of course, but right now most who own them don't and many are realizing this -- the market for new/used SUVs and trucks is plummeting.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/01/news/companies/auto_sales/index.htm?cnn=yes

[Derf]

Because there is a pressing need for public transportation doesn't mean it will happen. There seems to be a pressing need for affordable medicare in the U.S. and I don't see anything being done about it.

Exactly. Lobbies. The insurance lobby is too powerful to let the government give away free healthcare like other countries do. The car and oil lobbies are too powerful to let the cities be developed around public transit, unless they can be part of it (i.e. make money off it).

Do you think, in the U.S., with the underlying resistance to new taxes, that Joe Middle America is going to be okay with allocating his tax dollars towards transit? No, public transit is for them other folk. Do you think he's going to easily give up his truck which he equates with personal freedom? Ain't gonna happen.

Individualism. Not much can be done about it. Most people (I think) understand the benefits of taxes and social measures, but lots don't believe in it because if they are well and succeed, other poeple just need to do the same when, in reality, it is not always possible.

Instead, we'll see increased pressure to reduce gasoline taxes and an increased effort to "stabilize" the supply of oil. Already, Bush wants to end the ban on off-shore drilling. Who knows, maybe the next Prez will find evidence of Scuds in Alberta and launch an effort to liberate Albertans from the clutches of the evil socialists in Ottawa.

Isn't there an agreement between the 2 countries that forces Canada to supply a big part of it's production for the US? So this has already happened, but on paper.

[KingCrimson]

What gets my goat is the lack of usable non-car roads.

It would be a dream come true if my dad could bike to work, but there's no easy way to find non-road routes to commute on. An extra, heavily divided lane running along the interstates with idiot proof entrances would be just the ticket.

While it's easy to say "I'll never get hit by a car, I wear a day-glo vest and I'm very aware of my surroundings," the odds are against you.

When driving on the freeway, it's easy enough to spot a car with a smashed in front end, a wobbly wheel, bad shocks, and an "I support no fault insurance" sticker on the back window swerving all over the road, and avoid it. You're going the same speed in the same direction and there's plenty of road to move around on (assuming traffic permits you to do so...) You're only exposed to so many jackasses in a given time.

However, if you're biking along a road, ALL the cars that pass you have the potential to hit you, and with your back to the cars flying by you, how do you know there's not Mr. No Fault plowing through the shoulder or bike lane?

Divided bike lane....gooood...

[Allee]

That won't happen overnight, but here's something that could - how about we ask the kids that live within a 10km radius of their school to ride? It's estimated 1/3 of the cars on the road in the rush hour are parents taking their kids to school. Sheesh, a 5 km ride should take a kid 15 minutes on a bike... it's ridiculous.

I'm actually surprised how fast I can get downtown from where I live on the bike paths. I can be in the city in 30 minutes, and basically not be riding on a road the whole way. That being said, I wouldn't want to be out on a bike in Calgary between November and April...