TVR

I am suggesting we fear less. I am thinking the draconian shutdowns are not needed, and the kids should be in school. But I am also suggesting we limit large gatherings of the vulnerable (Children don't seem to get sickened and the number of deaths of children without severe underlying symptoms is zero) but allow life to move forward. Antidepressant prescription issuance is at an all time high by a magnitude and this is due to the fear.

Here are the statistics, middle of the page, for the TOTAL death counts from ALL causes. Take them as you choose. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm The reason this matters, is because it takes the politics out of the subject. Every week, people die. This is the circle of life. Since we have historical data, we can determine the expected number of deaths, and these will fluctuate within parameters. this number and these numbers give us a better extract of how the pandemic is progressing, and no one can spin the numbers up or down, in respect to the "why" people died, when we have historical data to see what the expected numbers should be and are. Contraction rates don't matter as much as people would like to make them. Chicken Pox is deadly, but since there is a general immunity, no one runs from the kid when they present. Looking at the data from the TOTAL deaths, we can see this pandemic at worst, has crested, and at best, has provided enough data to doctors now to where they can now treat it, and so it is far less deadly. As we look, we will see there was a second spike in the middle of July. This would correspond to being approximately 2 weeks after, all across the country, there were mass gatherings in the streets where many people were sharing sweat and congregating closely. Clearly, this is something to avoid it would seem, as large gatherings seem to correlate to a bump. I will note, however, that the spike was significantly smaller than the original spike as doctors seem to have a better handle on the treatment aspect. Let's keep in mind, this graph is for ALL deaths, from ALL causes. One overlooked aspect is that since this outbreak, people are no longer going to the doctors. Cancers, Heart issues, and all forms of other deadly, but preventable illnesses are not being diagnosed as people don't dare go into the hospitals, or the hospitals are cutting staff. It has been 8 months since this all started, and 6 months since it was widely publicized as a pandemic. Even if every case of COVID was cured tomorrow, these death figures would still exceed the normal expected numbers for the next year or two due to lack of preventive medicine. Last week the delta was 2k, the lowest number since the week ending March 28. What percent of that 2k was from lack of preemptive care? Let's not forget that none of the homeless have the resources they did as little as a year ago. I think if we go by the raw numbers, look at past history, we might get a different picture than what is being presented to us every day.

That suggestion, the screen lock with your number (or alternate number to call) is genius... I will do that on my phone as well.. put my wife's number on it to call if lost. Great tip man!

Be aware that a phone is an easier target than most computers for a hacker. If you use the WiFi or BlueTooth features, and leave their radios on, respectively, then you are a relatively easy target to be hacked. At the last blackhat conference, it averaged just a little over 2 minutes to hack anyone's Android device, and a little over 3 minutes for the newest IOS device. Windows phone were hacked on average in 91 seconds. What does this mean, and why am I telling you? Please don't keep your "picture of my Driver's License, Insurance Card, Registration, Old Military ID, and Health Insurance Info." on your phone. Identity theft is the least of your issues with that much info, as I can create an entire fraud ring in your name with all that. If the wallet is an issue, buy one, and use the insert for pictures as the wallet. Mine fits in a shirt pocket, if I want. For context, I work in IT, so I know about this from experience, not conjecture or reading some tabloid. Hacking is not about getting or guessing your password, but in reality, tricking the underlying code to process bits in a way they should not. As an example (will give an old example so as not to propagate hacking in this channel) when Windows 2000 came out, many used them as their web servers to host their web sites in data centers across the globe. 10's of thousands were installed. If an individual came across a web server running Windows 2000 they would only need to put an executable (presumably to form the reverse socket connection for them to do what they wanted from there) in their current directory, (lets call it boom.exe) and go http://theirwebsite.com/%255c%255c/boom.exe and would own the web server from there. The reason is what is called a buffer overflow, where the Windows 2000 server buffer didn't know how to deal with the %255c and from their interpenetrated it as ASCI which is the equivilant in windows of the ../ command. Since the IIS server goes back two directories, it puts the CWD as C:/windows/system32 and since that directory has root permissions to run, it takes the boom.exe and just runs it, in that directory, installing whatever the hacker wants and owning the server. Obviously, from there they own whatever else on the network they want. Buffer overflows are but one in a huge list of tools a hacker will use. Patching only works for flaws already detected. When an attacker is sitting within range, he only needs a little time to run code against your phone, and if successful, will pull your pictures and contacts to data mine as much value as possible. For you, they hit the jackpot. You won't ever know about it, until the IRS shows up to collect the taxes owed on the now-defunt business that was started by you. I don't know you, but please, don't keep that kind of info on your phone.

honestly, you can get those locally at the hardware shops with a good grade...

I would state evidence disagrees with this statement.... Perhaps we should have a "COVID" topic discussion board? Put some rules in place and can in there present evidence? I think the key issue I have is calling one persons statements (like Dr Fauci's statements) 'evidence' vs cdc.gov's total death statistics 'evidence' and weighing them equally. There is also the difference of 'death with COVID' vs 'Death by COVID' and why evidence needs to be looked at for it';s purity. How many people are not getting screened for cancers due to fear of COVID? How many other ailments will cause additional deaths due to not seeing the doctors? Lets also not look at COVID with a singular lenses and contribute all harm to the human population to it. Needless to say, this might need a topic all of its own.

Very hard to comment on this topic, as it has become so political. What I can say that, however it is viewed, on one side or the other, is you should do what you feel makes you feel safe. Many of us have bought passes, and will go as often as possible while others will not feel safe and will not. I have bought all my passes, but this is due to how deadly I see the pandemic is (not the transmission rate), and the affect I see it will have on myself and my kid due to the data I have researched. Others would disagree and have their own view based upon their data. Ultimately, it will all come down to your decisions, and I have made mine based upon the data I have.

This is very interesting..... Maybe with a little extra travel, this could keep the board "fresh" for a longer time? Thing must have one hell of an interesting feel when peddling or such....

Well now. No one will ever state the font was too small.......

I don't want this to get political, but Bill Gates is not looking out for us humans in any good way; his actions are not as altruistic as he attempts to portray them. He might have been part of the growth of technology as we use it now, but since then his motives have changed. Trust him, his products, and his directives at your own peril.

I have the equipment, have the season passes, and even have everything all booked and paid for, for Nationals next April in Copper. I hear every tick of the clock, loud and clear...... Yea, I get it......

Who is your son, as mine is/was part of the weekend program at the Loaf. Mike (my son) certainly likes his gates....

I not only purchased the pass for my son and I for 20/21 season, I also already purchased lodging for the 20/21 Nationals at Copper for my son's racing. If you pay with a card, it makes no difference what the policy is for cancellation. The Fair Credit Billing Act (https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/credit/fair-credit-billing-act) is a law that regulates the credit card industry, but moreover, also regulates those who accept cards for payments. Rocky Mountain Management Resort company and specifically Jeffrey DePaola attempted to keep the moneys from my reservation for this past cancelled Nationals at Copper and I simply processed it through my card and received 100% of my funds back. He did the typical strong arm tactics of threatening I would receive nothing if I didn't accept a 50% voucher and I simply know the law and stated no, and have since ensured all know his companies practices. No one can be charged for either products or services they are unable or unwilling to provide. It makes no difference if it is from a pandemic, and makes no difference if the provider is legally no longer able to provide those services. It also makes no difference what the cancellation policy is, providing it is the merchant that cancels, and not the card holder, and the card holder is still willing to accept goods or services paid for. Anyway, I am also not worried about a resurgence of COVID, and the pass for the loaf, Sunday River and Loon have thus far been a very fair company to do business with.

While others find a burger to put on the grill at a lake somewhere, Jack finds the snow....... I like Jack's way better....

You bought a T Bar? Specs on your hill? If I had a few hundred vertical and a T Bar, I would set gates every day for the kid and I to just have fun....

UPDATE TO THIS TOPIC: Since I had no good correspondence with the property management company, and since they attempted to strong arm me by threatening to give me nothing if I didn't take a 50% voucher, I did the charge back with my credit card company. I figured it was a 50/50 shot when I did it, but with them unwilling to satisfy the accommodations, I figured it made sense. As it turns out, I was right. According to the Fair Credit Billing Act, ( https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/credit/fair-credit-billing-act ), their company being unable or unwilling to satisfy the terms of the rental creates a situation where I was entitled to the 100% refund of my moneys. It didn't matter that I went through Hotels.com (also unhelpful) but rather, I was not liable. It also mattered little if there was a clause stating no refunds, as the no refunds policy only kicks in if they were willing and able to provide the goods or services and I didn't want them any more. Their clause does not remove their responsibility liability to provide the product or service, if I was willing to accept it as defined in the contract. I have since been permanently refunded the moneys, and anyone who has anything from USASA Nationals 2020, or any other venue that have not accepted a partial refund should look into this for themselves. I hope this was helpful, and I caution anyone from using any property managed by Rocky Mountain Resort Management moving forward, as they certainly don't have their client as their first priority.

Resurrecting the two year old topic with awesome footage.... very cool man...

Still available?

Interesting take on it...

Don't understand the comment, but it is just a matter of predictive analysts. H1N1 caused drops, and the MIRS before that... the housing bubble was obvious with people buying interest only mortgages and this was and is no different. Once I saw oil get to 20 a barrel, I went in heavy, even though I missed the real bottom a few days earlier. Then I put limit buys in place and when they hit, added those. I have been watching this now and experimenting with it for a while now. Stocks are an interesting way to gamble. As an example, I bought $34 worth of PSEC back in 2017. To date, my PSEC has lost 58% and my account looks very red for that stock, all $93 worth. One might ask how I have tripled the money in 3 years while losing almost 60% stock value. The thing is, this stock pays a dividend. Since I set the stock to automatically reinvest every dividend, every month the dividend is played, my share increase actually outpaced the stock valuation drop. See, it isn't what you make so much as what you get to keep that is important. Needless to say, the stocks I bought this time were energy and not capital. So I watched the other energy long term stock portfolios, saw which ones at the bottom now, could still lose valuation and yet the dividends reinvested would bulk it up past the loss in valuation and went with those. I don't understand the meaning of the last comment, but I hope that explains how my thoughts work in these interesting times.

Sorry to do this, but I bought heavy on 3/23 and am up more than 23% on that investment.... All the energy stocks are at a 70% discount right now, as oil is at historic lows. The world will not stay this way, and people need to look global when investing, rather than local. With the emerging economies of countries like India and China (Even with the threats of legal actions due to COVID-19), the world will need energy within the next 18 months, as Gretta's best wet dream will not bring the globe off of oil for at least another 8 years. Also, they pay good dividends.... With this aspect, regardless of whether the US economy grows, falls, or stays stagnant, I am predominantly into energy stocks, only investing moneys I could afford to lose, and will get out once these stocks are back to 55% of their originals. Like all other gambling, I will get out when I have made money to the point of the risk becoming a risk again.... which I figure to be at about 55% of the original stock prices from back in February.

So, wait... Stay far enough apart so the skier who is constantly clacking his skiis together will finally stop pucking my board unless I hold it way over to the side?

Today's paddle shifters are the reason why. I modern computerized transmission can shift in .02 seconds vs the fastest human with a clutch, at about .15 seconds. Where naught to 60 or 100 times are now in the sub three's, this makes a difference and is causing people to have to make a choice. Do they want the feel of speed, or truly be the fastest. I suspect there will be clutchless manuals at some point to bridge the gap here (full tree, and not just paddle in a different place), but I still like my manual transmission.

I will, respectfully, disagree, as Jack and I find and get more young kids into the hardboots.... The hardbooting community is growing where we are, in New England up north...

I will be buying mine early. If the resorts are closed and cannot honor the passes for next season, most all of them will go into foreclosure as they all expanded their snowmaking, etc, recently and all have debts related. I think the rest of the country would be in the same boat, so I am betting on them being there and open, because if they don't, there will be nothing to open again.