What will happen here at $10 /gallon?

[Gecko]

That being said, I wouldn't want to be out on a bike in Calgary between November and April...

:eplus2:that's funny:eplus2:

seriously some cities have very good bike lanes, portland for instance, and some cities consider bicyclists a nuisance and won't even prosecute a driver who intentionally runs down a cyclist (Chicago). As I said above I spent time in Japan which is a very 2 wheel centric culture, roads (even as far as the construction and surface of the pavement) parking and even the packaging of foodstuffs is oriented towards transportation on a two wheeled vehical.

[big mario]

People who NEED these vehicles will keep them, of course, but right now most who own them don't and many are realizing this -- the market for new/used SUVs and trucks is plummeting.

I can vouch for this, I am in construction, and felt I could not get by without a pickup, in fact I felt that any car you couldn't carry a sheet or 20 of plywood was nonsensical, at least for me. After a 70 buck fillup last Augest, I said enough is enough, and went from an F-150 to a Honda Element. 21 to 25 mpg, not fantastic, but awd and with the seats up I can get most of my tool inventory in( which now is a laptop ,a notebook and a file box) when I am actually wearing my tools. My truck sat on a consigment lot for 5 months prior to which it was in internet classifieds, a truck trader, and craigslist. When I finally did sell it I got about half of bluebook for it, and was happy to do so.

[skatha]

I have a real problem with all the people who can't drive a truck but drive SUVs as well, but, puhleeze, a Toyota FJ-40 is a big toy.

My Expedition (check the spelling) is currently towing our 25 foot long camper thru southern CO and, soon, SE Utah.

Granted, it is not my daily driver...

$10/gallon gas will ultimately mean nothing unless a meaningful alternative to the internal combustion engine is developed. I remember the protests when gas hit $3 transiently before going back to to $2. And this is nothing compared to 30 years ago.

Americans are going to drive. If you are not living in an area of dense population and, in that scenario, public transportation is exceedingly expensive to a community, you are going to drive. The American job market is moving south and west and there's little public transportation in these areas for the aforementioned reason. And, please, save your Prius crap. The batteries they use make up for whatever gas savings you think you are gaining now-check back with us in 4 years when you need to replace the batteries. Oops, you'll probably be buying a new one-f*ck the environment, right?

[KingCrimson]

I'll continue where Skatha left off..

Want to know the MOST economical thing to do?

Buy a used car. All the emissions from producing the steel, plastic, etc. have already been made. All the materials are already there, so they don't need to mine more iron, pump more oil for the plastics. Assuming you've bought yourself a used pickup, that's 1000 pounds of steel just on the drivetrain that doesn't have to be made.

Most economical car? A Geo Metro. It gets better mileage than your Prius, it weighs less, it's WAY cheaper, and the battery is only there to crank the engine. Most important part? It's already been made.

Allee, you're clearly not enough of a nutjob. You know there's a whole site dedicated to ice biking?

[boarderboy]

Petro-based plastics & resins more expensive & higher energy costs generally will ripple through manufacturing. Hence boards/boots will cost more, incrementally ?

More travel $$ means less board $$. Quivers will be downsized and more-versatile, all-mountain boards will proliferate.

Already-existing, used boards will retain their value longer. Hold on to your Confederate money and your used P-Tex!

Boost in non-petroleum resin research. Think plant-based resins already being used for surfboards in Great Britain (?)

Air travel more costly and less pleasant = more local and regional boarding. Canada and "Out West" trips will cost more; thus become rarer; hence ECES WILL BECOME AN ANNUAL EVENT...

"Ski Train" renaissance in New England, southern Rockies, and maybe Caifornia Sierras(?)

Smaller, esp. Southeast ski resorts will have to raise prices significantly as energy costs impact snowmaking

Regional destinations like Snowshoe, W.V., that already get lots of bused tour groups will get even more. (Damn you, IntraWest!)

Lots of carpooling on local trips.

But as long as there's snow, we'll board...

[tex1230]

I'm just looking forward to the day that my '08 Jeep Commander is a collector's item!

[Gecko]

ummm ski train...I would so be all over that:1luvu:

[queequeg]

ummm ski train...I would so be all over that:1luvu:

Yeah, me too. You can get to killington/stowe via amtrak from NYC but it takes so long that its not really worth it.

[photodad2001]

Yeah, me too. You can get to killington/stowe via amtrak from NYC but it takes so long that its not really worth it.

What they need is an underground express train. No stops, no turns.

[Rob Stevens]

$10 a gallon?

At $7 a gallon, the average American worker will be spending 20% of their post-tax income on gasoline. This is akin to the ratio paid for many mortgages, prior to the sub-prime fiasco.

This society is simply unprepared for the coming situation. With large geographical areas and infrastructure designed around cheap oil (suburbs), the transition to a radically different lifestyle will be excruciating.

Your current situation is going to be untenable within a short period of time. Even if you're insulated from the immediate effects by a high income, 9 out of 10 aren't and they are the ones keeping our countries on the rails. When their jobs are gone, your circumstances become grave, to say the least. Snowboarding? If we have the time to gab on this forum 1 year from now, I'll be surprised. I think we'll have other things to occupy ourselves with.

This is coming very soon. Israel will go to war with Iran. Likely, when the US is somewhat rudderless during the upcoming elections. Do you want to speculate on gas prices when President Ahmedinejad orders attacks on shipping in the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation? That's 40% of the Earth's total daily supply right there. A strong La Nina should also play havoc in the (your) Gulf this year. With refining capacity already wavering, another Katrina would deal a deathblow to fuel prices. The third concern is China and India. An American recession used to be a guarantee of lowering oil prices. That was back when nobody else used the stuff. Now, the US holds the lead in consumption by the barest of margins. By next year, she will be passed by these 2 new players.

20 years of broadcasting "Dynasty" to third world countries is coming home to roost.

Are you ready?

[photodad2001]

$10 a gallon?

At $7 a gallon, the average American worker will be spending 20% of their post-tax income on gasoline. This is akin to the ratio paid for many mortgages, prior to the sub-prime fiasco.

This society is simply unprepared for the coming situation. With large geographical areas and infrastructure designed around cheap oil (suburbs), the transition to a radically different lifestyle will be excruciating.

Your current situation is going to be untenable within a short period of time. Even if you're insulated from the immediate effects by a high income, 9 out of 10 aren't and they are the ones keeping our countries on the rails. When their jobs are gone, your circumstances become grave, to say the least. Snowboarding? If we have the time to gab on this forum 1 year from now, I'll be surprised. I think we'll have other things to occupy ourselves with.

This is coming very soon. Israel will go to war with Iran. Likely, when the US is somewhat rudderless during the upcoming elections. Do you want to speculate on gas prices when President Ahmedinejad orders attacks on shipping in the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation? That's 40% of the Earth's total daily supply right there. A strong La Nina should also play havoc in the (your) Gulf this year. With refining capacity already wavering, another Katrina would deal a deathblow to fuel prices. The third concern is China and India. An American recession used to be a guarantee of lowering oil prices. That was back when nobody else used the stuff. Now, the US holds the lead in consumption by the barest of margins. By next year, she will be passed by these 2 new players.

20 years of broadcasting "Dynasty" to third world countries is coming home to roost.

Are you ready?

Sound like armegeden to anyone else?

[yyzcanuck]

Here's some easy reading for you... ENERGY OUTLOOK.

Isn't there an agreement between the 2 countries that forces Canada to supply a big part of it's production for the US? So this has already happened, but on paper.

Canadian exports to the US are linked to production through NAFTA. NAFTA requires that Canada export a large percentage of its natural gas production to the US. I believe we will soon (within a few years?) become an importing country with regard to NG. Strange. We'll have to continue to export and yet we'll have to import to meet our own domestic requirements.

[Allee]

That's assuming that we can meet the export quotas - seems the US has decided that they don't want oilsands oil as it's too dirty. The Alberta government is red faced with fury. This should be an interesting stoush.

[yyzcanuck]

Maybe GTanner could pipe up here... but I think we also use a huge amount of NG to produce oil from the tar sands projects and then export that oil! NG is used to produce heat/steam to break down the bituman?

[skategoat]

Geez, I think I will just go play golf. I might ride my bike to the course.

[Allee]

I got drunk and reflective the other night, and thought to myself that I'm glad I've done the travelling I have while I've been in Canada ... in ten, maybe even five years from now, air travel may be a luxury reserved for the rich. The concept of leisure travel may disappear in my lifetime, and our children will be relegated to staring at the world's wonders on the television.

That's an incredibly sad thought.

Or maybe I'll just take the rest of my life off and bicycle to Egypt.

[boarderboy]

Or maybe I'll just take the rest of my life off and bicycle to Egypt.

Take some pontoons.

That last hop is a doozie...!!!

BB

[skategoat]

I read a book a while back that is particularly relevant to this discussion - "A Short History of Progress" by Ronald Wright. I wish I could find it and reread it but I must've loaned it out.

I remember this - Wright says that the idea that technology and progress is the answer to all of the the world's ills is a recent one - a Victorian one. Progess, at first, seems to make life easier but it eventually reaches a stage where it threatens us. He calls it the "progress trap.".

Wright argues that technology will not save us. A complete, fundamental change in the way we live is the only answer.

An interesting read. It makes you think twice about "advancements" like alternative fuels which, if successful, will simply perpetuate our lifestyle of over-consumption.

[KingCrimson]

That's assuming that we can meet the export quotas - seems the US has decided that they don't want oilsands oil as it's too dirty. The Alberta government is red faced with fury. This should be an interesting stoush.

Do you know what a friggin huge problem it would be for us if Canada had any power?

We're so comfortable with basketcase Mexico, and nevermind-him-anyway Canada.

You've already got the maple syrup market, we don't need to be paying for your oil too!

[queequeg]

It makes you think twice about "advancements" like alternative fuels which, if successful, will simply perpetuate our lifestyle of over-consumption.

Yeah, I think that's the ticket. the problem is that we over-consume in terms of energy and so many other things. the only option we that we have (that is a real soultion) is to begin living more sustainable lives, rather than simply finding a way to put off the inevitable changes a bit longer. I agree that energy efficient cars are more of a bandaid (albeit, a somewhat welcome one) than a solution. It's like we've remained in a relationship that doesn't work for a long, long time, know all the while that it will have to end someday but keep at it out of convenience. All you're doing is prolonging the torture, and making the eventual breakup all the more difficult.

[skategoat]

This is coming very soon. Israel will go to war with Iran.

I'm not sure how that one will work. An air war maybe but a real war needs ground troops and I don't see a common border nor any friendly nations bordering Iran that will allow a build-up of Israeli invasion troops. And if it's the other way around - Iranian troops going into Israel from Syria, for instance, they will be liquidated before they come within 100 kilometres of the border.

If it's a few bombing raids followed up by a few Scuds that fall into the sea, well, we've seen that before and survived it.

[Rob Stevens]

I'm not sure how that one will work. An air war maybe but a real war needs ground troops and I don't see a common border nor any friendly nations bordering Iran that will allow a build-up of Israeli invasion troops. And if it's the other way around - Iranian troops going into Israel from Syria, for instance, they will be liquidated before they come within 100 kilometres of the border.

If it's a few bombing raids followed up by a few Scuds that fall into the sea, well, we've seen that before and survived it.

The mechanics of this war, while not irrelevant, are not the factors that will drive the price of crude through the roof, but rather the uninformed fear that accompanies any military action.

An all-out war would see sustained price increases. A month long air war by Israel against nuclear facilities in Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on shipping will produce near term results that could push an already teetering economy over the cliff.

Photodad used the word "armageddon". The funny thing about armageddon is that someone, somewhere is going through it right now. This has been true as long as people have walked the Earth. We just happen to have the luxury of seeing this as someone elses problem and tend to think of it as biblical prophecy. That's nice for us, but what makes us think we're so insulated from getting thrown into the ****?

[skategoat]

I did a Google search on "iraq israel war" and came up with this as the first hit:

http://www.rense.com/general69/dayone.htm

Chilling.

I think though, as the scenario above suggests, an Israeli attack on Iran could not happen without the support of the U.S.

[Rob Stevens]

I did a Google search on "iraq israel war" and came up with this as the first hit:

http://www.rense.com/general69/dayone.htm

Chilling.

I think though, as the scenario above suggests, an Israeli attack on Iran could not happen without the support of the U.S.

The pressure is on the US Gov.

[Pat Donnelly]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlVNyJFBCxc&feature=related