willywhit Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 U.S. Forecasts Warmer Than Normal Winter As seen on Netscape news today. Maybe there's a correlation between warm winter weather and alpine snowboard racing ? Anyone know who the racer is ? <http://channels.netscape.com/fotosrch/2/20051016SOL08D.jpg> WASHINGTON (AP) - Government forecasters on Wednesday predicted a warmer than normal winter, offering hope to much of the Midwest and West as concern grows about the rising costs of heating during cold weather. The National Weather Service said there is a 60 percent chance of warmer than normal weather in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, north Texas, northern New Mexico and southern and eastern Colorado. <http://cdn-channels.netscape.com/cppops/features/i/image_upload/i/1005warm_winter_lk1.jpg> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 "The National Weather Service said there is a 60 percent chance of warmer than normal weather" Is that a meaningful statistic? Isn't there a 50% chance of warmer than average weather every winter? (Assuming that average=normal, of course.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galen Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 Ugh...here we go again. Farmers Almanac is predicting another northwest winter like last year too, but this time northern ca. might not escape it like last. I did see one model that said Wa., Id. and BC "might" have an equal chance of being normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gecko Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 in the northests will be colder than normal, normal snowfall for the for everyone except the northwest magor snowstorm in N.E. in early March :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdgang Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 I have been boarding since 92 and i have come to realize one thing. People who forcast the weather dont know S&*T!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike T Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 in the northests will be colder than normal, normal snowfall for the for everyone except the northwest magor snowstorm in N.E. in early March :D Farmer's almanac has gotten the NW wrong every year for the last 5. I don't belive a thing they have to say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gecko Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 Farmer's almanac has gotten the NW wrong every year for the last 5. I don't belive a thing they have to say. I sense a bit of hostility there Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skatha Posted October 22, 2005 Report Share Posted October 22, 2005 I'm not a weatherperson but I do follow the weather and, seems to my reckoning, active gulf hurricane seasons were followed by some pretty cold winters. The forecasters predict that were entering an active gulf hurricane period for the next 20 years. Has to do with another oscillation period much like the north Atlantic oscillation, but over the southern Pacific. The oil companies are predicting a cold year. The oil companies meterologists also predicted a 70% risk of strike to their production facilities this year by a major hurricane and they were dead-on, twice. Just to let you know, they normally only predict a 30-40% risk of strike to their facilities any given year. Forget this Joel Gray character at CSU. My money's on the chick at ExxonMobile from now on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotts.Scheinman Posted October 23, 2005 Report Share Posted October 23, 2005 who cares how much snow there is as long as there is snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slopetool Posted October 24, 2005 Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 The weather expert's last words are "anything can happen this winter." Its just got to be better than last year here in the Pacific NW. I'm planning on the best despite what the pesimists say. Like Mike says, "snow damit!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philfell Posted October 24, 2005 Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 I could be wrong but the rider that you attached looks like either Feigle (sp). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willywhit Posted October 24, 2005 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 Phil, the whole point of the post was that the image was ALREADY attached to the AP story on Netscape. I just thought it was interesting that they'd use an alpine racer for such a lame forecast report.btw, they're not talking about snow predictions at all, just a slight warming trend in some states (not including Colorado) that nobody cares about. 60 % chance is like flipping a coin in the weather biz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeW Posted October 24, 2005 Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 Phil, the whole point of the post was that the image was ALREADY attached to the AP story on Netscape. I just thought it was interesting that they'd use an alpine racer for such a lame forecast report.btw, they're not talking about snow predictions at all, just a slight warming trend in some states (not including Colorado) that nobody cares about. 60 % chance is like flipping a coin in the weather biz. I beg to differ. Check out the climate forecast maps on the noaa.gov site (yzk's post up above). warm trend's gonna be the "norm" out here in CO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike T Posted October 24, 2005 Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 I beg to differ. Check out the climate forecast maps on the noaa.gov site (yzk's post up above). warm trend's gonna be the "norm" out here in CO. Realize that those NOAA maps are showing "probability of warmer or colder than normal weather". In the light orange ares, the probability of warmer-than-average overall weather during the 3-month period is 33-40%. In many areas, low precip is more of a season-killer than high temps. I am relieved to see that Oregon has equal chances of above-normal and below-normal precip. But given the probabilities of above-normal temps, I am glad I'll be riding at Bacehlor this season which is higher and colder than Hood. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galen Posted October 24, 2005 Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 Realize that those NOAA maps are showing "probability of warmer or colder than normal weather". In the light orange ares, the probability of warmer-than-average overall weather during the 3-month period is 33-40%. In many areas, low precip is more of a season-killer than high temps. I am relieved to see that Oregon has equal chances of above-normal and below-normal precip. But given the probabilities of above-normal temps, I am glad I'll be riding at Bacehlor this season which is higher and colder than Hood. Unless I'm reading it wrong, A= above average temps. It's in darkish brown in the southwest, and gets lighter as it spreads out radially. I'm guessing the lighter areas mean it's less likely then the darker areas. It does look like precip will be normal, and yes, Bachelor was a life saver for me and my crew, hoping the same this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeW Posted October 24, 2005 Report Share Posted October 24, 2005 Realize that those NOAA maps are showing "probability of warmer or colder than normal weather". In the light orange ares, the probability of warmer-than-average overall weather during the 3-month period is 33-40%. In many areas, low precip is more of a season-killer than high temps. I am relieved to see that Oregon has equal chances of above-normal and below-normal precip. But given the probabilities of above-normal temps, I am glad I'll be riding at Bacehlor this season which is higher and colder than Hood. Right, and I wouldn't rule out those probablities. And yes, I agree low precipitation wouldn't work too great for ski resorts in general. However, high temp wouldn't be too good for me, as a snowmaker. It'd be a hassle to fiddle with the damn air/water gauge to just get it right with the freezing level's not close enuf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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