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U.S. Forecasts Warmer Than Normal Winter


willywhit

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U.S. Forecasts Warmer Than Normal Winter

As seen on Netscape news today. Maybe there's a correlation between warm winter weather and alpine snowboard racing ? Anyone know who the racer is ?

<http://channels.netscape.com/fotosrch/2/20051016SOL08D.jpg>

WASHINGTON (AP) - Government forecasters on Wednesday predicted a warmer than normal winter, offering hope to much of the Midwest and West as concern grows about the rising costs of heating during cold weather.

The National Weather Service said there is a 60 percent chance of warmer than normal weather in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, north Texas, northern New Mexico and southern and eastern Colorado.

<http://cdn-channels.netscape.com/cppops/features/i/image_upload/i/1005warm_winter_lk1.jpg>

post-123-141842206015_thumb.jpg

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"The National Weather Service said there is a 60 percent chance of warmer than normal weather"

Is that a meaningful statistic? Isn't there a 50% chance of warmer than average weather every winter? (Assuming that average=normal, of course.)

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Ugh...here we go again. Farmers Almanac is predicting another northwest winter like last year too, but this time northern ca. might not escape it like last. I did see one model that said Wa., Id. and BC "might" have an equal chance of being normal. :angryfire

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I'm not a weatherperson but I do follow the weather and, seems to my reckoning, active gulf hurricane seasons were followed by some pretty cold winters. The forecasters predict that were entering an active gulf hurricane period for the next 20 years. Has to do with another oscillation period much like the north Atlantic oscillation, but over the southern Pacific.

The oil companies are predicting a cold year. The oil companies meterologists also predicted a 70% risk of strike to their production facilities this year by a major hurricane and they were dead-on, twice. Just to let you know, they normally only predict a 30-40% risk of strike to their facilities any given year.

Forget this Joel Gray character at CSU. My money's on the chick at ExxonMobile from now on

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Phil, the whole point of the post was that the image was ALREADY attached to the AP story on Netscape. I just thought it was interesting that they'd use an alpine racer for such a lame forecast report.btw, they're not talking about snow predictions at all, just a slight warming trend in some states (not including Colorado) that nobody cares about. 60 % chance is like flipping a coin in the weather biz.

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Phil, the whole point of the post was that the image was ALREADY attached to the AP story on Netscape. I just thought it was interesting that they'd use an alpine racer for such a lame forecast report.btw, they're not talking about snow predictions at all, just a slight warming trend in some states (not including Colorado) that nobody cares about. 60 % chance is like flipping a coin in the weather biz.

I beg to differ. Check out the climate forecast maps on the noaa.gov site (yzk's post up above). warm trend's gonna be the "norm" out here in CO.

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I beg to differ. Check out the climate forecast maps on the noaa.gov site (yzk's post up above). warm trend's gonna be the "norm" out here in CO.

Realize that those NOAA maps are showing "probability of warmer or colder than normal weather". In the light orange ares, the probability of warmer-than-average overall weather during the 3-month period is 33-40%.

In many areas, low precip is more of a season-killer than high temps. I am relieved to see that Oregon has equal chances of above-normal and below-normal precip. But given the probabilities of above-normal temps, I am glad I'll be riding at Bacehlor this season which is higher and colder than Hood.

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Realize that those NOAA maps are showing "probability of warmer or colder than normal weather". In the light orange ares, the probability of warmer-than-average overall weather during the 3-month period is 33-40%.

In many areas, low precip is more of a season-killer than high temps. I am relieved to see that Oregon has equal chances of above-normal and below-normal precip. But given the probabilities of above-normal temps, I am glad I'll be riding at Bacehlor this season which is higher and colder than Hood.

Unless I'm reading it wrong, A= above average temps. It's in darkish brown in the southwest, and gets lighter as it spreads out radially. I'm guessing the lighter areas mean it's less likely then the darker areas. It does look like precip will be normal, and yes, Bachelor was a life saver for me and my crew, hoping the same this year. :biggthump

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Realize that those NOAA maps are showing "probability of warmer or colder than normal weather". In the light orange ares, the probability of warmer-than-average overall weather during the 3-month period is 33-40%.

In many areas, low precip is more of a season-killer than high temps. I am relieved to see that Oregon has equal chances of above-normal and below-normal precip. But given the probabilities of above-normal temps, I am glad I'll be riding at Bacehlor this season which is higher and colder than Hood.

Right, and I wouldn't rule out those probablities. And yes, I agree low precipitation wouldn't work too great for ski resorts in general. However, high temp wouldn't be too good for me, as a snowmaker. It'd be a hassle to fiddle with the damn air/water gauge to just get it right with the freezing level's not close enuf.

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