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Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 | Another extreme winter for many parts of the US


Pat Donnelly

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Another extreme winter for many parts of the US

US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.

So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.

La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.

Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.

Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.

With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/winter-weather-forecast-20112012-extreme-winter-parts-31096/

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3 of the last 4 winters in the inland Northwest have been above average snow years with relatively early mid Nov. starts. "05-08 were dismal el'nino years with low cover and early closings in march. The PDO seems to trump la'nina/el'nino for us on some years and the shift to cold PDO is very promising news:biggthump

N.I.C.E. should be another big success this year:D

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today it was suppose to rain all day...

it's nice and sunny.

IT's funny how meteorologist is the only job you can pretty much be always wrong and still keep your job. No other job gives you that freedom.

I agree that daily weather forcasts can be trumped by many unexpected atmospheric events, making the "local" weather meteorologist's job difficult, and making it appear that they have no clue as to what is actually happening in your local area.

The bigger weather trends created by solar activity, La nina and El nino, are measurable events that can be accurately, scientifically analyzed, and while not always absolutely accurate down to each individual square mile of each country/state/county, it does help predict the high potential for certain trends to take place.

If nothing changes abruptly meteorlogically speaking, the scientific data is telling NOAA the next 20-30 years we could be in for some potentially epic cold winters (and hopefully a ton of snow!!), which sounds like a great possibility of more great years of CARVING!! :biggthump

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  • 3 weeks later...

Surprised this forum doesn't just shut down during the summer (yes i know we aren't all from North America, no flaming). I haven't been on here since like after March break when i came back from an awesome 3 days of carving at Whiteface in Lake Placid, when i was just getting the hang of it. Can't wait till winter.

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