Pat Donnelly Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 Another extreme winter for many parts of the US US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded. So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012. La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes. Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges. Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts. We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago. With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US. http://unofficialnetworks.com/winter-weather-forecast-20112012-extreme-winter-parts-31096/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puddy Tat Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm up for another season like what we just had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatoos Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 Simply can not wait!! (It's nice that in Europe too so it will be)!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b0ardski Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 3 of the last 4 winters in the inland Northwest have been above average snow years with relatively early mid Nov. starts. "05-08 were dismal el'nino years with low cover and early closings in march. The PDO seems to trump la'nina/el'nino for us on some years and the shift to cold PDO is very promising news:biggthump N.I.C.E. should be another big success this year:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie00 Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 today it was suppose to rain all day... it's nice and sunny. IT's funny how meteorologist is the only job you can pretty much be always wrong and still keep your job. No other job gives you that freedom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allee Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 I'm up for another season like what we just had. Me too. Plus I needed an excuse to go to Whistler and run the skeleton track. Looks like I just got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gcarve Posted August 10, 2011 Report Share Posted August 10, 2011 today it was suppose to rain all day... it's nice and sunny. IT's funny how meteorologist is the only job you can pretty much be always wrong and still keep your job. No other job gives you that freedom. I agree that daily weather forcasts can be trumped by many unexpected atmospheric events, making the "local" weather meteorologist's job difficult, and making it appear that they have no clue as to what is actually happening in your local area. The bigger weather trends created by solar activity, La nina and El nino, are measurable events that can be accurately, scientifically analyzed, and while not always absolutely accurate down to each individual square mile of each country/state/county, it does help predict the high potential for certain trends to take place. If nothing changes abruptly meteorlogically speaking, the scientific data is telling NOAA the next 20-30 years we could be in for some potentially epic cold winters (and hopefully a ton of snow!!), which sounds like a great possibility of more great years of CARVING!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie00 Posted August 11, 2011 Report Share Posted August 11, 2011 I understand about the trends and cycles that comes back. The real reason that I hate the weather so much is probably that I am still bitter that all the big storms stopped in vermont last year and never went up north to Quebec ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Da Hooger Booger Posted August 29, 2011 Report Share Posted August 29, 2011 Surprised this forum doesn't just shut down during the summer (yes i know we aren't all from North America, no flaming). I haven't been on here since like after March break when i came back from an awesome 3 days of carving at Whiteface in Lake Placid, when i was just getting the hang of it. Can't wait till winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gcarve Posted September 2, 2011 Report Share Posted September 2, 2011 Surprised this forum doesn't just shut down during the summer........................ Can't wait till winter. That is exactly why we don't shut down for summer, we can't wait for winter!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bora20 Posted September 11, 2011 Report Share Posted September 11, 2011 It snowed on my home mountain, Sun Peaks, last week on the top 1000' or so. Didn't last long but sure looked pretty up there at 7000' feet. Guess I better email Bruce to see how my Coiler is coming along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stupidlong Posted September 25, 2011 Report Share Posted September 25, 2011 well i hope we get some more of da white sfuff than we got last year. new york and connecicut got hammered i had to head south to find any good powder days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gcarve Posted October 4, 2011 Report Share Posted October 4, 2011 Oh yeah!!! A winter storm warning is in effect this Wednesday Oct. 5 thru Thursday the 6th. 8-10 inches of snow is expected down to 6500 feet!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gcarve Posted October 8, 2011 Report Share Posted October 8, 2011 Mammoth mountain, Ca, 10/6/11. It's looking like it might just be another early season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoffmac11 Posted October 8, 2011 Report Share Posted October 8, 2011 aww darn and i just bought a new board and season pass...and i have winters off from work..what am i going to do..guess ill just have to go skiing/snowboarding/alpine boarding every day! thank god the mountain is only 30 minutes away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
two_ravens Posted October 8, 2011 Report Share Posted October 8, 2011 Don't know how we survived here - we went 117 days without snow this summer!!!! :eek: But it's back now, whew!!! We can smile again. (Oh, and after much debate and hand wringing, Snow King will open again, for this year at least! Woohoo! ) :1luvu::1luvu: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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