The downside of an improving economy

[John E]

Our carving crew here at Loveland (60 miles west of Denver) has noticed that the highway traffic is significantly worse this year that in the recent past. 

 

I'm guessing this is because the improved economy has brought a lot more people to the slopes. I left the area at 1PM yesterday. The roads were dry but the traffic was stop & go most of the way back home. What should have taken about 45 minutes took more like 75 minutes. 

 

Have riders in other parts of the country seen similar trends?

[piusthedrcarve]

75 min. - 45 min. = 30 min.

Quit complain. We wait 30 minutes for a chairlift here in mid atlantic area on weekends.

Kidding.

Here we also noticed longer line this year than last 4-5 years.

Edited January 27, 2015 by piusthedrcarve

[ExcelsiorTheFathead]

Maybe.  Trends are up overall, but bad conditions in Southern California and the Cascades must be bad for business in those areas.  Sun Valley had a good Christmas/New Year's season because of good snow.  Many people cancel if they think conditions suck.

 

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Mountain Resorts Post Strong Gains in Revenue, Occupancy
Publish Date
01/16/2015

SAM Magazine—Denver, Colo., Jan. 16, 2015—Revenues at 19 mountain resorts in six states are up 15 percent over last season while occupancy is up 9 percent, according to Denver-based DestiMetrics. The data reflect aggregated occupancy based on reservations already made through April.

Revenue and occupancy have experienced gains every month from November through April, with double-digit percentage increases in February and April. This year Easter is April 5.

 

“As mountain resorts head into the prime winter months, the data is showing continued strength in the destination tourism segment of the industry, which … can be accurately predicted based on lodging reservation activity,” explained Ralf Garrison, director of DestiMetrics. “The perception of good early conditions and continued positive economic news is creating the potential for some resorts to surpass the record-setting 2007-2008 ski and snowboard season if the trends continue,” he added.

 

Regionally, consistent snowfall at most Rocky Mountain resorts has helped boost a 15.4 percent increase in revenues and a 9 percent increase in occupancy compared to last year as of Dec. 31.

 

Occupancy for the season at resorts in California, Nevada, and Oregon is up an aggregated 9.6 percent compared to the same time last year. Despite some dips in the average daily rate, the robust occupancy level has offset those declines, and is delivering a 5.6 percent increase in revenues.

 

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Colorado Reports Strong Early Season Skier Visits
Publish Date
01/26/2015

SAM Magazine—Denver, Jan. 26, 2015—Total skier and snowboarder visits at 21 Colorado resorts during the first part of the season were one percent shy of last year’s record pace, according to Colorado Ski Country USA (CSCUSA). The data reflects visits from Oct. 17 through Dec. 31, 2014.

 

Last season’s early season skier and snowboarder visits were more than 20 percent up over the preceding season’s. Additionally, 2014-15 first period skier visits, like last season’s first period skier visits, exceeded the five-year first period average, this year by nearly 4 percent.

 

“Many in-state skiers didn’t head to the slopes at the beginning of the season, a time when most visitation is our Colorado based skiers and riders,” said Melanie Mills, president and CEO of CSCUSA. “It wasn’t until mid-December that Colorado saw significant snowfall that arrived in abundance and in time for resort guests from out-of-state, as well as in-state, to enjoy wintry holidays.”

 

Mills added that visitation over the Christmas holiday was strong with good snow conditions and resorts reporting increased spending across ancillary businesses.

 

Momentum from last season and a number of high profile international ski and snowboard events happening in Colorado this winter are keeping optimism and excitement high for the months ahead, she said.

 

“Resort calendars are teeming with exciting events and we’re seeing a lot of confidence in the indicators for the season in front of us: strong hotel bookings as we look to spring, a well-timed Easter holiday for ski vacations, and Colorado’s traditionally snowier months are still ahead,” Mills said.

[John E]

Snow conditions in Colorado aren't that great so far this year. What has happened in previous seasons is that when the mountains west of Denver get a big dump, everybody heads up. I think Christmas Eve was the only day so far that might be classified as a "big dump". Since then, just a little bit here & there. The snow in the mountains is pretty old. I think it was over 70 degrees F in Denver yesterday (and maybe today). There is likely a pent-up demand for fresh snow. When we do get the next big dump, the roads will be packed. 

 

The ability of the areas to get people up the hill far exceeds the capacity of the roads. 

[ExcelsiorTheFathead]

Gas prices are probably now as much of a factor as an improving economy.  Real wages are stagnant, so the average person doesn't really have much more money to spend.  I read an article which claimed that people feel better simply because there is less bad news with "doom and gloom".  If you don't think that you will be layed off soon, that must ease a lot of worry. 

 

I figure that I-70 is something of a special case.  Unless there is some kind of bad downturn (again), it can only get more congested.  The Denver Metroplex is booming, rents are sky-high, and more people move to the area every day.  All the tunnel widening, shoulder paving, metering and rolling slowdowns won't create enough capacity to bring all of these new skiers to places like Peak 6 and the proposed A-Basin expansion.

 

"If you build it, they will jam up the roads."

[D.T.]

The ability of the areas to get people up the hill far exceeds the capacity of the roads. 

Couldn't have said it better!

 

I went to do an early hike/ride St. Mary's glacier on Saturday.  At 6:20, traffic at the 70/470 interchange was stop-and-go, with a max speed of ~30mph, and stayed that way through Idaho Springs.

I was back on 70 headed east at 10:00.  Traffic was bumper-to-bumper at a crawl from Fall River Rd. to Beaver Brook.  This was a great reminder why I don't do Saturdays anymore...

[John E]

I guess that I didn't think about gas prices. For me in general, it is a minor concern. I think another effect may be that since the election is over, they have stopped telling us how bad things are. 

[live_love_ride]

Golden to Lovey is a pretty straight shot. However last year is when I truly noticed the traffic patterns shifting. Two hours from Golden to Bakersville - then a stand-still parking lot with folks getting out of there cars taking "selfies". All kinds of wrong! I turned around several times cuz it just was not worth it and that was mid-week! 

 

I honestly do not understand the appeal of so many folks moving to Denver - so no harshing my opinion cuz that's just me.  

And completely agree with this statement by John E:

 

"The ability of the areas to get people up the hill far exceeds the capacity of the roads" 

[ExcelsiorTheFathead]

I think another effect may be that since the election is over, they have stopped telling us how bad things are. 

I thought the election was all about uteruseses?

 

I honestly do not understand the appeal of so many folks moving to Denver - so no harshing my opinion cuz that's just me.  

You just can't argue with jobs and marijuana.

[lordmetroland]

You just can't argue with jobs and marijuana.

Did we just inadvertently stumble on the reason for the slow traffic up to the hills? It only takes one idiot to cause a traffic jam. An idiot with a joint is a sure bet.

Edited January 28, 2015 by lordmetroland

[ExcelsiorTheFathead]

It didn't occur to me at first that low oil prices would be a negative for Colorado employment, but it makes sense.

 

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Colorado unemployment dips to 4%, the biggest drop in the U.S. in 2014

By Howard Pankratz
The Denver Post
Posted:   01/27/2015 08:10:23 AM MST | Updated:   about 8 hours ago

 

Low unemployment rates and good job growth at the end of 2014 signal Colorado has begun 2015 with strong economic momentum, tempered by sagging oil prices, economists said Tuesday.For the year, Colorado logged the biggest proportional drop in unemployment in the nation, as healthy hiring lowered the rate to 4 percent from 6.2 percent. Colorado's employers added 62,300 jobs, boosting its payrolls 2.6 percent, the nation's 10th-best job gain.

 

About 4,700 jobs were added in December, according to a report by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

 

The unemployment rate was 3.8 percent in metro Denver in December and 3.9 percent in and around Greeley, at the heart of the northeastern Colorado oil patch.

 

In the past six months, oil prices dropped about 57 percent from a high of $107 per barrel and prices were down 51 percent year-over-year, according to the University of Colorado's Leeds School of Business. Benchmark U.S. crude rose $1.08 Tuesday to close at $46.23 a barrel in New York.

But the labor department's chief economist, Alexandra Hall, and Broomfield economist Gary Horvath said Colorado's highly diversified economy will help the state weather low oil prices — at least for a while.

 

Hall said if prices climb back to $60 or $70 per barrel in the next few months, there is likely to be little impact on jobs. If the low prices persist and there are oil-field layoffs, those workers will easily transition to other industries that are short on employees, such as construction, she said.

"Colorado oil and gas accounts for about 10,000 jobs across the entire state," Hall said.

 

"But it is still a very small part of our overall economy when we are talking about 2.5 million payroll jobs in Colorado."

 

Horvath noted that in 2014, about 60 percent of job growth was in construction, health care, accommodations and foods services, retail trade and professional and technical services.

 

"Admittedly the price of oil will have an effect on the rate of job growth in 2015," Horvath said. "However, at a statewide level, most of these sectors will show steady growth."

 

Hall said she also was encouraged by improved unemployment rates among youths and the long-term unemployed.

 

"Overall, 2014 was a great year for Colorado," she said. "2014 grew faster than 2013. We are seeing growth rates now that we haven't seen since prior to the 2001 recession in Colorado."

 

During 2014, the national unemployment rate sank to 5.6 percent from 6.7 percent. Employers nationwide added nearly 3 million jobs last year, the most since 1999.

 

Howard Pankratz: 303-954-1939, hpankratz@denverpost.com or twitter.com/howardpankratz

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[John E]

Maybe legal pot has reduced productivity so much that employers have to hire more slackers to help out the slackers already on payroll. 

[ExcelsiorTheFathead]

From the WSJ recently. All these young people will want to go skiing.

Denver Job Market Lures Millennials

The newcomers are fueling the city’s boom, but locals fret over rising rents and lost views

By ANA CAMPOY and DAN FROSCH

July 23, 2015 8:48 p.m. ET

DENVER—Millennials are flocking to the Mile High City, but it isn’t the nearby ski slopes, microbreweries or urban hiking trails that are attracting them: It’s the jobs.

A shared office space called Industry, in the popular River North Art District, stands as an example of the entrepreneurial forces that are luring a flood of young professionals here.

Formerly a depot for the truckloads of produce that rolled into Denver from Colorado’s farmland, the firm’s 155,000-square-foot warehouse is now an open-air maze of workspaces for everything from ride-sharing company Uber to CirrusMD, which connects doctors and patients virtually.

“You don’t move just because some place is cool,” said Aaron Duke, a 39-year-old San Francisco transplant and CirrusMD employee. “You’ve also got to be able to earn a buck.”

While the new arrivals are transforming the city’s landscape and economy, they also are generating tensions among locals, who complain they are driving up rents and fueling a building boom that is marring some mountain views.

The metro area, which has a population of about 2.7 million, received more than 100,000 out-of-state residents from 2010 through 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That is the fifth-largest influx of domestic migrants in the country, surpassing cities such as Seattle and Washington, D.C.

Some 3,200 new firms have opened their doors in Denver during the past four years, according to city estimates, contributing to more than 165,000 new jobs in the broader metro area and helping drive the unemployment rate to 4.1% in May, among the lowest for big metros in the nation.

Public improvements to lure millennials, such as building bike paths and revitalizing neighborhoods, can result in a nicer place to live, economists say, but for an economy to thrive, more fundamental investments are needed, including a well-connected airport, universities to train workers and a business base that attracts people from around the region, they note.

Those advantages are helping to power Denver’s growth.

“A city like Denver from the beginning was a central place,” said Mario Polèse, an urban economics professor at the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique in Montreal. “It was destined to grow.”

Denver has long been a regional hub, with established industries such as oil and telecommunications that leaders have built upon to create thriving sectors such as energy information technology and digital health care.

While Denver is benefiting from a booming economy, residents are dealing with big-city problems such as traffic and skyrocketing rents.

Though rents remain well below New York and San Francisco, they jumped 7.8% last year to an average $986, the second highest increase among U.S. metros, behind San Jose, Calif., according to Reis, a real-estate research firm.

Some critics also are concerned that newcomers are out-competing Coloradans, who tend to be less educated than the recent transplants.

“We’re not growing our own talent fast enough,” said J.B. Holston, dean of the University of Denver’s engineering and computer science school and founder of the Blackstone Entrepreneurs Network, which focuses on scaling up Colorado’s promising companies.

Paul Washington, head of Denver’s Office of Economic Development, says officials are committed to spreading the city’s prosperity, building affordable housing and educating residents in disenfranchised neighborhoods.

They’re not giving up, however, on the millennial generation—those born roughly between 1980 and 2000.

“The influx of millennials is extremely important,” said Mr. Washington, adding they “bring energy and enthusiasm and optimism.”

Craftsy, an online learning firm co-founded by former Bay Area residents, has gone from five employees in 2010 to 270. John Levisay, one of the company’s founders, said it made sense for the firm to settle in Denver because of the city’s lower operating costs, its big pool of engineers and growing interest from tech investors.

Otilia Mendoza works at MM Local, a canning company in the trendy River North Art District neighborhood. The MM owners are concerned that new development will result in higher rents. PHOTO: NATHAN W. ARMES FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

At IMA Financial Group, an insurance provider, young jeans-clad recruits are helping develop tech products. Since the company moved its headquarters near Union Station, a trendy transit hub, it is getting three times more applicants for every job it posts, says chief executive Rob Cohen.

New development, however, also is pushing some locals out. In Jefferson Park, a century-old residential neighborhood, 11 homes have been replaced with 65 townhouses on just one street.

Rafael Espinoza, who lives there and recently was elected to the Denver City Council after expressing concerns about gentrification, complains that the townhouses are unsightly and are making the area unaffordable.

“You shouldn’t be so fixated on bringing in the new revenue and the new warm bodies at the expense of having a diverse population,” he said.

In the River North Art District, Jim Mills, co-founder of an organic-produce cannery, has seen the former industrial strip transformed into a gathering spot for flip-flop-wearing hipsters and young entrepreneurs.

It is the kind of customer Mr. Mills is targeting with his live-fermented Sriracha sauce and rosemary pears. As breweries and lofts sprawl closer to his warehouse, however, he worries he will no longer be able to afford to stay.

“It’s been both exciting and a little unnerving to see,” said Mr. Mills, an out-of-state migrant himself.

[ExcelsiorTheFathead]

Skiers on I-70 could save half an hour on road for the right price
Eastbound express lane scheduled to open in time for the ski season

 

Travelers on Interstate 70 will get the chance this week to sound off on proposed toll rates on a soon-to-open express lane for ski traffic — a lane that could rank as the nation's priciest per mile.

 

The eastbound-only lane, designed to relieve the crushing congestion of a return trip to the city from Colorado's mountain ski resorts, is scheduled to open to vehicles in December.

[John E]

We'll see how it works out. 

 

Around here a number of previously free highways have added lanes funded by private companies. They charge a toll for use. To get the best rates, you need to have a transponder in your car. Otherwise they send a bill to the address of the registered auto. Not sure how they are going to work this out with rentals. Though I was initially against this approach, maybe it is the best of bad options. I think they should set the toll rate for all toll roads on a "on demand" model. When traffic in the toll lanes is light, reduce the toll. When it is heavy, raise the toll. This could be done on a minute-by-minute basis. A driver could then make the instant decision on whether to pay the toll or not. This should also maximize the revenue for the toll company. 

 

It seems like traffic around here has gotten significantly worse in the last year. We'll see how it affects the ski season. Last year, if I was on the highway by 6 AM, usually I was OK. However, it seems like one can't leave the ski area too early to avoid the afternoon traffic. I ran into traffic on a clear day last season leaving Loveland about 12:30. It used to be that if you left by 2 PM, you were OK. Sucks.