Ok, Im officially Jones'n, need some help

[Bobby Buggs]

I have been busting my ass in the gym to get ready with hopes to be on snow for Thanksgiving:1luvu: BUT NO!! Its 65 degrees today and the weather for next week.........

6-10 Day Forecast for

Springfield, MA Wednesday

Nov 25

Partly Cloudy

High 60°F

Low 39°F

Precip 10 %

Thursday

Nov 26

Few Showers

High 50°F

Low 36°F

Precip 30 %

Friday

Nov 27

Few Showers

High 48°F

Low 33°F

Precip 30 %

Can someone post some recent Vids to help me out here

[scrapster]

Bobby,

I feel your pain! It should be getting colder next week, hopefully enough so that they can start blowing snow at night in VT again.

I'm optimistic enough that I'm getting my snow tires switched over this weekend, before the rush when the first flakes hit.

I think Dingbat and I might be making an early trip up north this season, as soon as there's reasonable snow. I'm sure we'd have room for another in the car

[Bobby Buggs]

Just let me know when, I will get Tree Trimmer Rob Wallace to go with me and we will meet you there for sure. Right about now Im willing to settle for one of those 3 trail deals:o

[Dave ESPI]

Bobby, I went Rollerskating for the first time in nearly a decade lastnight because I couldnt bear thinking about not being on snow for ANOTHER weekend...

yet again ! yesterdays Rain was a killer soaking. saddly not cold enough to make it snow anywhere, so the bases are all crapped up now.

It was a good workout, but it felt more like SKI-MOTIONS despite my trying to get in a carve stance and hold the skates "inline" as I was in the turns.

My buddies were all laughing and saying "jeez; he even rollerskates like he is on a snowboard!"

Hang in there..... If NOV sux it means the rest of winter is gunnah RAWK !

oh, and I'm working on my jetski this weekend...... atleast there is some good that can come of warmer weather this time of the year... helps get me ready for the next "ski" season in april on the unfrozen water ;)

[Dave ESPI]

Jim, what were you guys doing?

HOLY COW can you say CORE SHOT CITY ?

wait, I know, you were going to remove all the big pointy sharp rocks and pile them up soz youz could have a nice clean path-place to ride next storm.. rite> ?

[Bobby Buggs]

So not riding yet there either Jim?? I am due in Vail on the 13th:eek:

[TheTruth]

Keep the faith, Bobby. The long range forecast shows changes for the better (much colder) in the Northeast starting in December. We all like early season snow to play on, but after all, Winter doesn't even start for another month. The long range forecasts I'm seeing shows the cold extending well into Spring in the East, so lots of good riding well into April if this holds true!

[P06781]

Fly out to portland and ride MtHood.... Mother nature has been aiming the cold alaskan jet stream at us for days! 20 inchs new powder at MtHood overnight with 18 degree temps is the best it gets here.

Round 2 coming tonight with another winter storm watch!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/

[Bobby Buggs]

Yeah not the best place for an early season day trip;)

[P06781]

Yep and all the predictions were that the east coast gets all the snow this year and the pnw was to be warm and dry due to el niño. It the best early season snow we have had in years .

[TheTruth]

Yep and all the predictions were that the east coast gets all the snow this year and the pnw was to be warm and dry due to el niño. It the best early season snow we have had in years .

If the long range forcasts are right, you may want to enjoy all that early season snow while you can. The long range called for colder than normal temps in the west, while normal to above normal in the east. The jet stream flip flop is expected sometime in December. The trough will dive down into the east, bringing artic air with it, while the west will be on the warmer/drier slide of things. The lack of snowmaking temps in November in the east stinks for early season riding, but was not unexpected. Of course, the weather is fickle, so we will have to wait and see if the long range forecast is correct. Even if the jet stream dosen't shift as much as expected, it will get cold enough in the Northeast withing the next few weeks to allow expanded snowmaking.

[Ernie00]

not being able to ride is starting to affect my moral ! Usually at this time of the year I have been out 4-5 times already and look forward to improving conditions.

My local hill has 2 runs open.. half mountain so 300 foot high and only half the already narrow width of a normal run.. so 3 Cats wide at most. not worth the drive.

I have 2 trips planned for Dec 4-5-6 Tremblant and 12-13 Stowe and killington.

Do I need to burn one of my metal coilers as an offering to the Gods of Snow ?

[Allee]

Yep and all the predictions were that the east coast gets all the snow this year and the pnw was to be warm and dry due to el niño. It the best early season snow we have had in years .

It's all over the place this year out west. Whistler has mind-boggling snowfall, yet Grouse and Cypress didn't get to share. Out Banff/BC way, Sunshine is open all lifts three weeks ahead of last year, and killer conditions. Lake Louise, Kicking Horse and Revy are all getting constant snow and are all open ahead of last year, KH and Revy having been bought forward a week. But Whitefish has been missing everything and Nakiska is only good for grass skis. Weather in Calgary is more like the end of September than the end of November - I haven't even turned my heating on yet.

Carverchick was complaining to me last night that they have nothing at all out her way either. So, doing a snow dance for all my East Coast friends ... winter has to arrive soon, right?

[dingbat]

Big stripes on the wooly caterpillars, squirrel nests high up in the trees, and Bobby Buggs whining about the weather.

Three signs we're sure to have good snow!:p:ices_ange

[Dave ESPI]

Jiminy is NOT opening this T-giving holiday weekend for the first time since 2003.

This means we will get pounded with people when we get dumps!

Hope for a few dumps before Xmas, or else I will be so broke that I truly will be a "ski-bum".... emphasis on the BUM.:(

[MUD]

I think we are doomed to a bad season around here....

I bought a season pass AND a set of studded tires for my dirt bike..... All in all about $1000. The only thing worse I could have done is buy a snowmobile......

Sorry.:(

[TheTruth]

It has been -35F to -50F for the past week in interior Alaska (record lows for this time of year). The cold air is available, it is just a question of when and where it will hit the lower 48 this winter.

[dingbat]

This is referring to the North East:

We saw a few flurries last nite around 1am. Savoy got 3" above 1800 feet. There was absolutely NO cold air for this past storm, and today winds have been draining in behind the storm, but it's still been in the mid 40's. You know how after a serious noreaster, that next day is blustery and cold as hell? Today was such a day, but there was no cold to be drawn down out of Canada.

...that's going to change. Later this week there will be another storm, although it's probably going to be a lakes cutter. that means that we'll be on the warm side of the storm. Models have been trending east, but it probably won't end up far enough east, and probably won't be cold enough either. BUT, the storm is going to change the pattern. The cutoff low over Alaska is going to be replaced by a nice ridge. ...and that means that there will be a trough in the East, along with a moderate block in the atlantic ...which means that both upstream and downstream will be much more conducive to storminess. ...and, much colder air will get pulled south.

...what that means is that the next few weeks = game on. ...we might have a slight warmup to normal temps during mid-to-late december, but by then we'll have a snowpack. ...hopefully.

[Dave ESPI]

ugh.... F.M.L.

[scrapster]

A lot of folks don't like the NOAA river forecast stuff--and this might be a reason why...

If you do a sampling of resorts in VT and NH, there's more snow out there than shown on the above map. Stowe got a nice dump further west than shown on the map. Resorts down to Mt. Snow all got something over the holidays--and just about all of them started blowing snow again this weekend. Many hills are going to try to open this coming weekend or next. Of course, our hills in MA may have to wait a bit longer :( But Dave, you're going to SES this year anyway, so no complaining from you!!

The Mad River Glen Single Chair Weather Blog just came back online: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ (Yeah, they're ski only, but they know their snow.) The blogger tends to be pretty conservative, and this is what he says about a central Vt forecast:

"The post must include a short summary and this must include an actual forecast so the details are as follows. El Nino tilts the range of possible temperature scenarios to the warm side but within this range I think temperatures will be on the cold side (did I say that right ??) thanks to the rapid expanse of (arctic) snow cover. Temperatures will thus fall in the normal to perhaps slightly above normal range. Snowfall on the other hand will be outstanding and I am going to predict the snowiest winter since the blog began and will include one lone epic period similar to what happened in February of 2007 and Christmas/New Years 2002-2003. Snowfall in the end will exceed 300 inches."

So, much reason to be hopeful!

[ak_rider]

i saw a few mentions of AK. whatever jet stream the PNW is getting, it isn't from AK.you guys in the lower 48 get most of your cold air from canada not AK. it's not cold except in the interior and even up there it has warmed up. we've gotten several feet of wet heavy snow, then rain, then sleet, then ice over the past week. so far we've only had about a week with cold temps. now that we have snow, it's jsut made the hoar frosted mountains extremely dangerous. turkey day had 1 lift running on the lower mtn at alyeska due to avi danger.

it's rare for our weather to reach the lower 48, especially snow. our low pressure systems come up from the south and generally move in a north westerly direction, wich is why southeast and southcentral get so much snow and relatively little in the interior.

trust me, when it was cold up here a few weeks ago, you wouldn't have wanted any part. there's nothing good about -20F. it's too cold to snow at those temps.

[dingbat]

i saw a few mentions of AK. .......it isn't from AK.you guys in the lower 48 get most of your cold air from canada not AK. ......

it's rare for our weather to reach the lower 48, especially snow. our low pressure systems come up from the south and generally move in a north westerly direction, wich is why southeast and southcentral get so much snow and relatively little in the interior.

trust me, when it was cold up here a few weeks ago, you wouldn't have wanted any part. there's nothing good about -20F. it's too cold to snow at those temps.

Yeah, but when the butterfly farts in the Serengeti and all that. Big stuff over AK affects big stuff over Canukistan, which affects the lower 48, ect., ect. You're right about that -20f stuff though. I experienced a hint of that when I lived in Wisconsin. You're welcome to keep it up there as far as I'm concerned.

[scrapster]

Hooray for butterfly farts! As long as they're cold!

And yes, the location/existence of those persnickety troughs and ridges do seem to mess with our weather a bit. We'd been locked into a warm area of high pressure for most of November with the jet stream doing an S-curve down from AK before shooting back up to us from 'round about Texas and the Gulf of Mexico--not exactly white Christmas material.

[ak_rider]

i was just saying that watching ak weather in an attempt to predict lower 48 weather is pointless. the high pressure we had earlier this month is what brought us record sub zero temps. that obviously didn't translate to cold weather down there. however, i'm not sure what it did to the weather in the serengeti.

[dingbat]

i was just saying that watching ak weather in an attempt to predict lower 48 weather is pointless.

You're correct, you did say it's pointless.;)

But it's not.

Even though the pressure systems over AK may not track over the lower 48 that does not mean they don't affect our weather and are not worth watching. We're watching stuff in the Atlantic and water temps of the coast of Chile as well. They all affect us. The main reason we're concerned with the pressure systems over AK is that the direction they spin has a huge effect on if we'll see warm air drawn up from the Pacific (when they spin counter-clockwise, typical of a low pressure system in the N. Hemisphere) or cold air sent down from Canada (when they spin clockwise, typical of a high pressure system in the N. Hemisphere).

Check out the last map in the first post of this thread:It's headed "GOES NH Water Vapor"

See the counter-clockwise rotation over the Alaskan peninsula and maritime regeon? It's pulling warm air and moisture out of the Pacific into the lower 48. Now imagine that rotating the other direction and how that would affect us. Ok, look down toward Texas for the stuff moving out of the Gulf of Mexico toward the Great lakes. That's the Lakes Cutter. What I've been told (by folks who know way better than I do) is that it is what's hopefully going to change the system that's sitting over Alaska, which will change the direction we're getting our air and moisture from. Combine this with high pressure backing it up over the Atlantic and a few other key elements in the Northern Hemisphere and we're looking at some decent winter storms for the North East.

Now, If you're thinking that we're watching the local weather forcast for Prudhoe Bay and saying "Hey! They're gettin' cold and snow in Prudhoe Bay so it's just a matter of time before it makes its way down here!" Then yeah, you're right. That would be pointless.