Farmers' Almanac forecasts winter of shivering

[Pat Donnelly]

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By The Associated Press

August 28, 2006

LEWISTON, Maine - Americans shouldn't expect Mother Nature to help with their heating bills this winter because it's going to be nippy, according to the venerable Farmers' Almanac.

After one of the warmest winters on record, this coming winter will be much colder than normal from coast to coast, the almanac predicts.

"Shivery is not dead!" declared editor Peter Geiger as the latest edition of the 190-year-old publication hits the newsstands.

The almanac, which claims its forecasts are accurate 80 percent to 85 percent of the time, correctly predicted a "polar coaster" of dramatic swings for last winter, Geiger said. For example, New York City collected 40 inches of snow even though it was one of the warmest winters in the city's history.

This year, predicts the almanac's reclusive forecaster, Caleb Weatherbee, it will be frigid from the Gulf Coast all the way up the East Coast.

But it'll be especially nippy on the northern Plains - up to 20 degrees below seasonal norms in much of Montana, the Dakotas and part of Wyoming, he writes.

And, he says, it'll be especially snowy across the nation's midsection, much of the Pacific Northwest, the mountains of the Southwest and parts of eastern New England.

The chilling forecast comes at a time of near-record fuel prices.

"Because of energy costs, nobody wants to hear that it's going to be cold," Geiger said.

On the other hand, "for those who enjoy the outdoors, it's going to be good news," he said.

Weatherbee makes his forecasts two years in advance using a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.

Ken Reeves, director of forecasting operations for Accuweather Inc., said there's a "thread of scientific logic" behind the almanac's secret formula even though the conventional wisdom is that local forecasts lose accuracy beyond 15 to 20 days.

"The concept or technique is different from what is done by the scientific meteorological community, but that doesn't mean it's without any merit," Reeves said from State College, Pa. "It's not like someone throwing a dart at the dart board."

Last winter was the fifth-warmest on average in the lower 48 states. Forty-one states had temperatures above average, according to the National Climatic Data Center. That reduced energy demand by an estimated 11 percent, it said.

The Farmers' Almanac claims a circulation of 4 million. Most copies are sold to banks, insurance companies, oil dealers and other businesses that give them away as promotions. Retail versions are sold around the United States and Canada.

[LeeW]

Hmm, on the other side the spectrum, Im reading out the data a bit different from NOAA.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

[Speedzilla]

Yesterday, the weather forecasters here said we had a week of sunny weather to look forward to.

Today, it rained all day.

[Allee]

It's nearly the end of August and it was 30 deg C today, and forecast for 29 tomorrow.

I can't see that we're going to have snow in September this year ...

[Jon Dahl]

No matter what, I've got the swallowtails all waxed and ready to go. Bring it on!

[RDY_2_Carve]

Hmm, on the other side the spectrum, Im reading out the data a bit different from NOAA.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Those precip maps look extremely promising for me!

[willywhit]

wakeboarding in a FULL 3/2 wetsuit last sunday. Feels like October already. Bring on the snow !

[LeeW]

Those precip maps look extremely promising for me!

well, dont forget to factor in the temperatures as well.

[garyj]

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By The Associated Press

August 28, 2006

LEWISTON, Maine - Americans shouldn't expect Mother Nature to help with their heating bills this winter because it's going to be nippy, according to the venerable Farmers' Almanac.

..."The concept or technique is different from what is done by the scientific meteorological community, but that doesn't mean it's without any merit," Reeves said from State College, Pa. "It's not like someone throwing a dart at the dart board"...

.

Much more accurate than throwing a dart! Although a bit quirky, I've found it to be amazingly accurate, at least for the easter Sierra.

[skatha]

Yeah, we were supposed to have a killer tropical season, too....

Interestingly, it's been pretty snowy in S. Africa-to the point where skiiers there have had the chance to ride on natural snow-first time in 30 years.

Most of the major tropical systems start out as thunderstorms off the African coast.....

Last year, we we up into the "K"'s...now we're up to the "E"'s and no major storms, at all.....

Just goes to show, we know enough about the weather to be dangerous

[RDY_2_Carve]

well, dont forget to factor in the temperatures as well.

Temps are never much of a problem here. We just need the precip!

[LeeW]

Temps are never much of a problem here. We just need the precip!

Like rain? I wonder what's the avg temp up the hill (where the tramway is in alburry).

[Allee]

From stuff.co.nz ...

Wild winter on its way out

30 August 2006

Winter is officially on its way out next week, and not a moment too soon for many New Zealanders.

We've shivered through record snows in Canterbury, waded through floods in Coromandel, Otago and Wairarapa, been battered by gale force winds in Auckland, Taranaki and Waikato and dodged land slips in Wellington, Hawke's Bay and nearly everywhere else.

The wild weather kicked off early with heavy rain drenching parts of Otago in late April. Rivers broke their banks, roads and bridges were washed out, and motorists were stranded in their cars overnight.

In early May, more rain caused land slips which closed the Napier-Gisborne and Napier-Taupo roads.

But the outlook seemed to be clearing on June 6, when the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said it was likely to be a mild winter.

Instead, it would be the coldest June since 1972, with an average temperature of 7.3degC. In Canterbury and North Otago the mercury dropped to -10degC on nine days. (For NZ this is incredibly cold).

On June 12, Cantabrians woke up to the deepest snowfall they'd had since 1945, cutting power to more than 10,000 homes – some of them for up to 18 days. And on June 22, another heavy dumping of snow across the central North Island closed all but one significant route between Auckland and Wellington.

July provided some respite from the plummeting temperatures – it was 0.8degC warmer than June – but freezing cold snows were replaced with torrential downpours in many areas.

Rainfall was twice normal levels in Wairarapa, and 1½ times normal in Wellington, Wanganui and King Country, causing widespread disruptions.

Slips blocked a crucial route between Hutt Valley and Wellington on July 5, and four houses were evacuated when the Ruamahanga River in South Wairarapa threatened to burst its banks.

On July 9 Mangamahu, a small town north of Wanganui, was cut off completely when a bridge over the Mangawhero River collapsed after heavy rains.

Not everybody bore the full force of the weather. Auckland, Hamilton and Dunedin all basked in the sunniest June on record. Auckland also had half its normal levels of rainfall in July, as did Coromandel and Central Otago. Northland and North Otago had a mere quarter of their normal levels.

Niwa scientists are quick to point out that they never said it was certain to be a mild winter.

"It may sound a bit like playing with words but what we said was it was likely to be mild," says Dr David Wratt of Niwa's National Climate Centre in Wellington.

The Climate Centre uses computer models to simulate the global weather system. They run a number of different models several times, making small changes to each run, and average out the results to come up with the weather odds.

This winter they ran about nine models, says Dr Wratt, between 10 and 15 times each. Based on the results from these, they found there was a 50 per cent chance of a mild winter.

"But we also saw. . . there was a 30 per cent chance of it getting very wet. So what actually happened was we got hit by the 30 per cent rather than the 50," he says.

"It makes our lives a bit miserable to tell you the truth, because we know the simple summaries we have to put out as press releases, some of the time will be wrong. And people will come back and criticise us. I won't say it's like being a politician, but there are certain jobs where it goes with the territory."

Dr Wratt says in fact it wasn't an exceptionally bad winter overall – no matter how atrocious the weather might have seemed.

"There were certainly some places where the weather was very unusual, but not necessarily for the country as a whole."

But Insurance Council chief executive Chris Ryan says it was one of the most financially damaging winters New Zealand has seen in decades.

"The insurance payouts would conservatively be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. . . It's been very long, very wet and very destructive."

He says one of the biggest concerns for the Insurance Council is the number of people who don't have insurance – up to a third of some small communities.

"We've seen a higher expectation from people that the government will help them out, and of course the government can't afford to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars when there's a flood."

According to Dr Jim Renwick, Dr Wratt's colleague at the National Climate Centre, people may have been caught off guard by this winter's severity because it bucked a warming trend.

"Over the last ten years or so we've had a predominance of warm winters. Maybe this winter has seemed that much colder because we've got un-used to having cold winters."

So, is climate change what's behind the milder winters?

Yes – New Zealand is 0.7degC warmer than it was 100 years ago, says Dr Wratt. But it's not clear yet whether climate change is linked to extreme weather in general.

"Some people say with climate change there are going to be more unpredictable swings from one extreme to the other. (But) we certainly wouldn't try to claim the extra snow through this winter is anything to do with climate change. Basically what we get is a combination of the natural variability that we've always had, with climate change going on underneath so perhaps we don't get so many cold winters."

In early August Niwa issued their forecast for a mild spring, saying it's likely to be warmer than average, and less windy. New Zealanders will have to wait and see.

[RDY_2_Carve]

Like rain? I wonder what's the avg temp up the hill (where the tramway is in alburry).

Usually the top of the tram is 15 deg F cooler than the ABQ temps. Keep in mind ABQ is at 5000 feet above sea level, and Santa Fe has the most elevation of any capital city in the lower 48 (and that's the city level, not the resort level obviously). If we get the precip it will be snowfall. Last season the temps were fine but just no precip. We get snow in ABQ but it never stays too long. The highs in the winter are usually 50 deg at most. I don't board much on Sandia anyways, but Santa Fe/Sandia have a new "gold pass" this season that is about 40% cheaper than the normal season pass. I'm tempted to say the least. Otherwise it's Angel Fire again this season with ~6 hour round trip communtes from ABQ. The thought of being at the top of the runs at Sandia within 30 minutes of leaving my house is tempting to say the least. Especially with the new discounted season pass.

On a seperate note-did you ever come down to ride Indian School ditch? I've been killing it on a weekly basis on the T-Board and would love to hook up if you have plans of coming down this way. My brother-in-law lives within 3 minutes walking of the ditch so it works out nice!

[LeeW]

On a seperate note-did you ever come down to ride Indian School ditch? I've been killing it on a weekly basis on the T-Board and would love to hook up if you have plans of coming down this way. My brother-in-law lives within 3 minutes walking of the ditch so it works out nice!

Yep, I go skate there whenever Im in town. I used to work at Alburry Downs as a betting ticket clerk. I skate at that ditch as part of my rehab when I broke my Tibia couple of years ago. Going to a wedding end of September in Alburry, and you can bet Ill be skating there for a bit. I like Los Alamos skatepark (if I got the name right -- not the town).

Keep in mind Im a 5th generation of my family down south in Tularosa/Ruidoso/Weed area as well as am a snowmaker at Vail. Temp was real bad down at Ski Apache last winter that the man-made snow kept melting constantly. Was wondering if that's the case up there in northern part of NM.

[RDY_2_Carve]

Yep, I go skate there whenever Im in town. I used to work at Alburry Downs as a betting ticket clerk. I skate at that ditch as part of my rehab when I broke my Tibia couple of years ago. Going to a wedding end of September in Alburry, and you can bet Ill be skating there for a bit. I like Los Alamos skatepark (if I got the name right -- not the town).

Keep in mind Im a 5th generation of my family down south in Tularosa/Ruidoso/Weed area as well as am a snowmaker at Vail. Temp was real bad down at Ski Apache last winter that the man-made snow kept melting constantly. Was wondering if that's the case up there in northern part of NM.

Los Lunas skate park. On the corner of Eubank and Lomas. I haven't been there yet but maybe someday. Don't think the T-board would do well in the pools. :p

It looks like the rainy summer is now gone and by the end of Sep. it should be nice and cherry out here for ditch riding. I'll message you my cell-hit me up when you decide to ride the ditch!

Yeah Ski Apache was the worst last season in NM. Never been there myself but it looks nice when there is good snow. I had a ticket there for last season that went to waste since they had like 3 runs open. Temps weren't a problem as much up north until mid-late March. Angel Fire was a slushfest on their closing day. Keep in mind that Red River/Taos/Angel Fire are less than one hour to the CO border so the weather isn't much different than say Durango, Wolf Creek, or Monarch. Santa Fe has all that alititude so temps don't seem to bother it as much either. Sandia can be hit and miss but the season before last they closed on a 100" base (with like 300"+ for the season). If you can get past the ancient lifts the park is really fun there but probablly not the absolute best spot for carving. Double Eagle on the far north side is one of my favorite runs of any park I've been to thus far.

After last season I'm looking for anything to be excited about so it's just wishful thinking at this point! :)

[LeeW]

I'll message you my cell-hit me up when you decide to ride the ditch!

You're on. And will be PMing you after this post. And btw, I went out to Wolf Creek soemtimes in March. My big gun (lib tech--litigator 172) wasn't even floating, either. Toooooo deep. Wow. Awesome, man! Only thing that sucks was to make sure I keep going and going on a very mild pitch at Wolf Creek, otherwise my goggle fogged up with too much sweat.