Covid #'s trending down in Canada

[pow4ever]

 

I get where @TVR coming from.  on pig pile, open dialog and etc.
We meet at Sugarloaf and can vouch that he is intelligent, articulate and a great loving father.
The amount of efforts(time/$/resources) that TVR put in so his son can succeed in Alpine snowboard racing make my commitment to alpine seem like a joke.
Can't wait to see Mike on the pro circuit podium one day.

I live in NY and my bubble are fairly progressive/liberal.  I went to Tennessee for vacation around June 2021.
First real outing since locked down.  I was in culture shock for the first day.  There is no social distance/mask.
People have no villainous intend; it's just the norm.  Have not meet a single bad apple while i was there.
perception is reality:  people can have different view point.

Point:
Internet discussion take the human element out.
Emotional/frustration get between our brain and keyboard.
Empathy goes a long way.  

Even if turn out that what i choose to do was wrong in the future. 
Wrong being: covid is a hoax
I wasted a year but if that's the cost where it have a good chance to save live.
I would be ok because my intention is good.

Stay home, getting vaccinated, mask up <-- it is a privilege to be able to do these.  It might not be an option for all.

[TVR]

1 hour ago, Neil Gendzwill said:

It’s not your immune status that’s a risk to people, it’s the FUD you are spreading.  

 

You maintain you are simply providing another data point but that’s about as innocent as Fox News and their “questions”.  

The vaccine creates less "FUD"? Since the COVID virus has not even be isolated as of yet, I am interested in your source for this information. In essence or in reality, you are telling all of us that the mRNA vaccine causes a human body to spread a virus less than someone with the antibodies that kill the virus when the antibodies come in contact with it. You're not even claiming the spread is the same, but that the vaccine actually reduces it and is better at preventing the spread. I don't want to see pastes from Fauci, as he cannot even keep his lies straight in front of congress, but please paste the sources from peer reviewed studies for that. They don't exist.

As for your disdain for FOX, it is well noted, but CNN and the other outlets certainly cannot claim to have a better record for truth, and although I would enjoy that debate, lets stay on track of the stated items. You can dismiss Fox outright if you wish, but there is a reason the other outlets are hemorrhaging viewer share due to their lies.

 

[softbootsurfer]

8 hours ago, TVR said:

Nice subtle insult there (and an example of my above point of attacking someone presenting the data)

where is your DATA?



Make your own decisions on how you can take care of yourselves and time will tell as all truths come to light eventually. 

yea Right...they will come to Death as well...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/texas-gop-official-mocked-vaccines-105231132.html

 

[TVR]

I suppose this makes you happy or something..... 

One case does not make evidence and I will just disengage in here and leave you to your happiness. Revile in some poor mans death if it makes you happy. There is plenty of  information available if someone is interested and I highly encourage everyone to be well informed and not just listen to the surface information presented.

I will again equate this to our sport as follows. Once you can make a good carve, you are not an expert. In fact, it is something to be perfected over the entire rest of your life. This would be the same with science, knowledge, and information.

A few years back, there was a debate in here about Iron Rock vs AllFlex plates. Some people were very passionate against the Iron Rock plates due to the then ongoing legal issues. Dismissing information sources because of where the information comes from rather than looking at whether the information is truth would be like choosing to race without a plate rather than using the Iron Rock due to you not liking the source of the plate. The plates are as good as the plate is, regardless of the legal issues they faced no different than information is true or false regardless of its source. 

Since this fundamental truth about the veracity of data cannot even be acknowledged and the default position on this subject seems to not be focused on the truth of data, it makes little sense to continue engagement. Anyone interested can always PM me if interested in civil discourse or the sharing of data. Everyone else can go back to their echo chamber and feel all self righteous and virtuous......   Enjoy a hollow victory on this subject.....

[Jack M]

Guys... we are all friends here.  I don't like the notions that differing opinions should be silenced or that people can't think for themselves.

On another note, Novavax is working on a more traditional, non-mRNA vaccine.  I'm already jabbed but it would be good for people to have choices.  More people would get vaccinated if they had a comfortable alternative.  Some news today on that:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/novavax-again-delays-seeking-us-approval-covid-19-vaccine-2021-08-05/

[softbootsurfer]

1 hour ago, TVR said:

I suppose this makes you happy or something..... 

One case does not make evidence and I will just disengage in here and leave you to your happiness. Revile in some poor mans death if it makes you happy. There is plenty of  information available if someone is interested and I highly encourage everyone to be well informed and not just listen to the surface information presented.

I will again equate this to our sport as follows. Once you can make a good carve, you are not an expert. In fact, it is something to be perfected over the entire rest of your life. This would be the same with science, knowledge, and information.

A few years back, there was a debate in here about Iron Rock vs AllFlex plates. Some people were very passionate against the Iron Rock plates due to the then ongoing legal issues. Dismissing information sources because of where the information comes from rather than looking at whether the information is truth would be like choosing to race without a plate rather than using the Iron Rock due to you not liking the source of the plate. The plates are as good as the plate is, regardless of the legal issues they faced no different than information is true or false regardless of its source. 

Since this fundamental truth about the veracity of data cannot even be acknowledged and the default position on this subject seems to not be focused on the truth of data, it makes little sense to continue engagement. Anyone interested can always PM me if interested in civil discourse or the sharing of data. Everyone else can go back to their echo chamber and feel all self righteous and virtuous......   Enjoy a hollow victory on this subject.....

This does not make me happy, I used this case as an example, much like your CDC headline in your post above, which bothered me because as you state here, one case does not provide enough Data to reach a factual conclusion, we can ascribe some Facts however from the Florida / Texas article I posted above, this does not in my opinion equate in any way to Carving a turn, my intention was and is not to argue with you, only to respond in kind to your Comments / Opinions, I apologize for any ill feelings I may have caused you or anyone else here... Take Care

[johnasmo]

1 hour ago, Jack M said:

On another note, Novavax is working on a more traditional, non-mRNA vaccine.  I'm already jabbed but it would be good for people to have choices.  More people would get vaccinated if they had a comfortable alternative.

There already is an authorized non-mRNA vaccine.  The J&J vaccine is a viral vector vaccine.  It uses an altered adenovirus to deliver a piece of COVID-19 DNA to cells.  Essentially, it infects cells as a virus would, but instead of causing the cells to replicate the virus, the DNA it carries only causes the cells to express a spike protein found on the outside of the COVID-19 virus.  Same goal as the mRNA vaccines, they just use a newer, sexier way to instruct the cells to express a spike protein, by instructing your own DNA to manufacture the protein.

Your immune system reacts to the foreign protein by manufacturing antibody proteins that bind onto it.  When faced with the a real COVID-19 virus, antibody proteins bind to the spike protein which inhibits its ability to enter cells.  That greatly slows the rate of infection.  Antibody levels in the blood are not the whole story, there's also memory B and T cells that respond to the proteins and go after infected cells.  CD4+ T cells help B cells to produce antibodies and help CD8+ T cells to kill virus-infected cells.  They are the heroes of the story and where long-lasting immunity comes from.

Vaccines are not virus condoms.  You can still have cells infected when exposed.  Vaccines simply teach the immune system how to fight the infection beforehand.  Getting vaccinated is like learning to snowboarding before entering your first BX race.  You're less likely to get seriously hurt by the experience.

The vast majority of scientists and doctors feel that the vaccines are safe and effective.  CDC scientists believe the current data shows that vaccine immunity is stronger and lasts longer than that of prior infection.  It's like hiring a professional racing coach for your immune system instead of asking your skate-punk cousin to give you tips for that BX race.  The truth is out there.

Edited August 5, 2021 by johnasmo

[trailertrash]

Listen folks, my already discredited points aren't wrong you just aren't open to new ideas.

[Neil Gendzwill]

FUD means Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. This is the bread and butter of the anti-vax crowd. 

[lowrider]

If this gets out of hand the mods have my permission (like it's needed ) to delete the thread. There have been some good links to further ones education on the subject. My disclaimer is my spouse has pharma background and if she says take the shot I take the shot. She also goes down trails at ski resorts if I tell her she can handle them !! If i had a chance to discuss with more people (I'm about as isolated as it gets these days ) my number one question would be what is the most compelling reason you have for not getting vaccinated against Covid 19.   (Numbers trending up again in Canada)

[SunSurfer]

@TVRhttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html

Has an answer, based on current state of knowledge, on whether people who have had Covid should be vaccinated. Despite its international reputation being damaged in the recent past, the CDC remains a reliable source of general health advice. For specific advice, taking into account your personal health history, discuss the CDC recommendation with your doctor.

[west carven]

howdy

and now … What Is the Delta Plus Variant? Here’s What Experts Know About It So Far … 

[johnasmo]

Data.

https://gothamist.com/news/jj-covid-vaccine-thwarts-delta-breakthrough-infections-large-south-african-trial-what-it-means-nyc

[Atom Ant]

The virus absolutely has been isolated.  Not going to bother providing a link here, as this is not a debatable point.  If we like, I can try to contact JnJs vaccine team, many of whome I personally know.  Or they are all colluding... Who knows?

 

[Jack M]

On 8/5/2021 at 6:42 PM, johnasmo said:

There already is an authorized non-mRNA vaccine.  The J&J vaccine is a viral vector vaccine.

Rare but higher risk of clotting 

[BobD]

On the topic of vaccine after infection. Although I thought I had got off lightly when I had COVID last November, there was a bit more to it. My worse symptoms were body aches and fatigue. these continued for a few months. I seldom managed more than an hour or so on the hill all winter. Things were getting a bit better until the first shot of Pfizer vaccine in April. My symptoms returned for a month, and returned again after the second shot. It's taken nearly three months since the last shot to finally feel symptom free.  Most days this last couple of weeks, I didn't need to take pain killers. COVID was the problem though, not the vaccines. I will definitely get a booster when available because I'm sure it will be better than getting whatever new and improved COVID variant happens to be circulating then.

People are so focused on the chances of death and serious illness caused by COVID, but even a milder case is best avoided.

Edited August 7, 2021 by BobD

[Neil Gendzwill]

Sorry to hear that, Bob and glad you are feeling better. Long haul effects are scary and can affect even quite young people. Cases are on the rise again here in SK. Get vaccinated, everyone!

[bumpyride]

20 hours ago, johnasmo said:

Data.

https://gothamist.com/news/jj-covid-vaccine-thwarts-delta-breakthrough-infections-large-south-african-trial-what-it-means-nyc

I like Data.  Thanks for the link.

[bumpyride]

10 hours ago, BobD said:

On the topic of vaccine after infection. Although I thought I had got off lightly when I had COVID last November, there was a bit more to it.   I will definitely get a booster when available because I'm sure it will be better than getting whatever new and improved COVID variant happens to be circulating then.

People are so focused on the chances of death and serious illness caused by COVID, but even a milder case is best avoided.

A wise man. 

Haven't had the misfortune of getting Covid, and doing everything I can possibly do to stay free (and I mean hospital, and bankruptcy free from getting Covid).  I stay masked up indoors and keep away from people outdoors, and try to stay upwind when I'm outdoors.

A booster when approved is the first thing I will do when available.

Hope you're feeling good.

Edited August 7, 2021 by bumpyride

[BlueB]

A bit more of random info I've got recently: 

Canada: 

In Okanagan area of BC (very touristy in the summer) cases are on the rise, heading to potential lock, or semi-lockdown. In Van, most of the new cases are somehow linked to Okanagan. All of them unvaxxed or one shot only. Apparently no new cases with fully vaxxed people. 

Astra Zeneca, that originally got bed rep, seems to have very good success rate against Delta. 

Serbia, where I'm currently visiting family: 

Had all the vaccines (except Moderna) available, early and was the vaccination leader in Europe, at one stage. Cases are on the rise, no one panicking though. Lots of anti-vaxx people. 

The "classical" vaccines are widely available, besides Phizer. Russian one seems to be working very well, I haven't heard about blood clothing cases. Chinese one didn't produce enough antibodies in lots of people, especially in the 35-55 age group. 

Croatia: 

Huge number of tourists. On quick rise. I might go soon, for a first-hand report

[BlueB]

@BobD very sorry you were very ill. I had very prolonged post symptoms of classic flue, over the years. At least twice it lasted to the end of winter - no fun. One turned into pneumonia... 

My sister in law had a pretty bad case of covid, recovered, then got really sick after the first shot. They've tested her antibodies, after that, and it was sky-high, to the point that blood samples were sent for research. She was told not to get the 2nd shot. 

Both my Mrs and me were sick after 2nd doses. We still have random bouts of tiredness more than a month later. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by BlueB

[bumpyride]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/05/opinions/how-to-move-people-from-hesitant-to-vaccinated-bregman-jacobson/index.html

[TVR]

16 minutes ago, bumpyride said:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/05/opinions/how-to-move-people-from-hesitant-to-vaccinated-bregman-jacobson/index.html

Kudos for the great article. Although I don't trust CNN (here is a good example of the content), this article read exclusively for its content discussion, and not for it's sided examples, is spot on in how to have discussions with those you disagree with. The idea of empathy and understanding those you disagree with will, at the very least, allow you to understand from where they are coming from.

Unfortunately, this as a reality is seldom able to go past the first few volleys of information. I would ask one primary question even before all the others. "Is the person in whom you are having a discussion or debate even able to change their mind if new facts and data is presented?". If the answer is no, then the rest is mute.

Great article Bumpyride, and  it is good to see that you understand the dilemmas of conversation and hats off to you for looking for solutions, but to my above question, the answer is unfortunately "no" and so this is why I disengaged from the conversation. It matters little the information as most are unwilling to see anything but evil intent for an opposing argument.  
 

[bumpyride]

There's always a solution for dangerous places to catch covid:  Just move them where there's no one around.  I offer proof for this from this very astute woman.

 

https://www.facebook.com/trophybucksofiowa/videos/934663080739589/

[bumpyride]

What You Need To Know About Delta: Today’s Covid Update From Virologist, Immunologist & Front Line Covid ICU Doctor Rick Loftus, MD

 

 

 

“Most of you have figured out by now that while we had hoped July would be the beginning of the end for the COVID pandemic, thanks to Delta (and possibly other variants in the future; more below), July was a sweet intermission, but we are now in Pandemic, Act 2.

Delta is about 4 times more contagious than “wild” SARS-CoV-2; it attains viral loads 1000 times higher. If anything, this not only means we need to return to the familiar behaviors- minimizing indoor human contact, physical distancing, masking- but we likely need to *intensify* these protective behaviors to avoid Delta.

As many of you know, some internal memos about Delta leaked from CDC about 2 weeks ago. The leak explained why CDC started suggesting masking even for vaccinated folks in areas with “high” rates of COVID (which is applicable to over 70% of our population right now and will be virtually all of the USA by next week). The memos related to an investigation of the COVID outbreak in Provincetown MA at 4th of July. Almost 1000 people got infected, and the CDC investigation indicated that vaccinated folks were not only getting infected but also passing on COVID to *other* vaccinated folks.

This is a game changer. Why? Because with standard COVID, even if vaccinated folks got COVID (expected; no vaccine is 100% protective), they didn’t seem very contagious. That meant vaccines could stop the spread of COVID, and we could get to a point where if enough people were vaccinated, the amount of virus in the community would drop, and even unvaccinated folks would be unlikely to encounter virus and thus be protected (“herd immunity”). With standard COVID we estimated we’d need 60-70% of humans immune, which is why 70% of adults vaccinated was the Biden administration goal.

With Delta, vaccinated can still spread COVID (half as well as unvaccinated infecte–but that appears to be well enough to get the job done)—so herd immunity is no longer likely possible. Even with a new anti-Delta vaccine, we’d need more like 85% of humans immune. Thanks to the anti-vaxxers, the US will likely never get there. Herd immunity is likely no longer an achievable goal- which means we are all likely to be exposed and possibly infected with Delta, sooner or later.

If getting Delta only meant getting sniffles or spending a few crummy days in bed, that wouldn’t be a big deal. And we know by far most vaccinated persons even with Delta won’t be hospital-level sick.

But what about Long COVID or post-COVID complications? As many of you know, I gave a Grand Rounds at my new hospital in this subject about 6 weeks ago. There was a study of Israeli health care workers published in the New England Journal 2 weeks ago. The study period was when the Alpha variant was circulating in Israel- not Delta. Only 3% of health care workers got infected during the study period (which is great; vaccination can handle Alpha). Of those who had COVID symptomatic infections, however, 20% still had symptoms at 6 weeks- very similar to the Long COVID pattern we saw in unvaccinated folks with standard COVID.

My conclusion is that the best way not to get post-COVID complications, is to not get COVID infection at all. Existing literature also shows that the sicker you are at the beginning of a COVID infection, the more likely you are to get post-COVID complications. In the first few months of the COVID outbreak, it became clear that the higher your exposure, the sicker you got- so using masks, etc., is going to help ensure that if you do get infected, it is a “smaller innoculum” and so a milder infection. If we get specific oral anti-viral pills available, the sooner they are started after infection, the milder the infection, and likely, the lower the risk of complications.
By the way, oral antiviral pills target internal proteins of the virus, not the outside spike protein targeted by the vaccines or the monoclonal antibody treatments. Thus, antiviral drugs should work against variants like Delta just as well as against standard COVID.

Delta is not just more contagious than standard COVID; it is also more aggressive. My colleagues in San Diego were seeing more 30 year olds critically sick with Delta last month, and pediatric hospitalists are seeing more kids critically sick from COVID. Again, the vast majority of infections are still mild in kids, and the vast majority of vaccinated adults who get infected have mild cases, but Delta is better at getting around immunity than are standard or Alpha COVID.

I would therefore not allow my child in environments where masking is optional. Having only some of the people around you masking is like a knight wearing only some of his armor against a fire-breathing dragon- if some of his limbs get fried, all of him is going to fry. We don’t leave drunk driving up to personal choice for the same reason- the drunk driver will not just kill himself, he will kill other innocent people, and that’s not his right.

With standard COVID, if one person in a household gets COVID, other household members would not necessarily get infected. With Delta, if one person in the house gets it, the entire household gets COVID. That’s what we’re seeing. The weak link in your bubble is *your* weak link. Period. One standard COVID case, after 3 waves of transmission, on average can infect 8 people. For Delta, it’s 125 people. That’s the difference.

Won’t vaccinations protect us? Based on the Israel data, Pfizer is only about 54% protective against Delta infections, vs 90-95% against standard COVID. The Israelis, unlike the Americans, insist every exposed person in a case get tested, regardless of vaccination status or symptoms, which is why Israel can show us how much the vaccines are failing at preventing infection. (Like many US doctors, I was very angry about such a stupid decision by the “new” CDC- and they finally changed that stupid policy last week when they realized how much trouble we were in with Delta.) Also, Pfizer announced recently that at 6 months, their vaccine’s protection wanes. (Moderna says at 6 months they are still strong, but I’m confident we’ll see the same pattern with that vaccine soon enough.) This Pfizer data was confirmed in the real world by reports this week from an Israeli hospital, where 90% of their COVID admissions now are fully vaccinated persons. (Remember, in a country with a high vaccination rate, we do expect a high percentage of the hospitalized COVID cases to also be vaccinated. What’s reassuring is that the deaths-to-cases ratio is 60-fold lower with the current Israel surge compared to the surge in January. People are getting infected, but we’re not seeing as many deaths, thanks to vaccination. The vaccines do work in preventing death/critical illness, let’s not forget that.) Israel nonetheless has begun giving 3rd dose boosters to those aged 60+.

I just heard from a friend in Coachella Valley where an indoor concert at which all attendees were vaccinated resulted in 12 COVID cases to date–very reminiscent of the Provincetown outbreak. Vaccination alone is not enough to prevent infection.

Your vaccination is like a hand shield, not a full suit of armor. If your goal is to avoid infection (and I advise for now, it should still be your goal), do not rely on vaccination alone to protect you. Use high quality masks and other sensible measures, per below. (See the end of this letter, “So what’s our endgame?”, for my thoughts on where this is going.)

DO I NEED A BOOSTER?

Yes. The US should have already approved boosters to adults with immune issues (blood cancers, immune disorders, autoimmune disease, HIV). The US should also be considering a 3rd dose for those 60+ like Israel is doing. Ultimately I think all of us will need a 3rd dose booster or a “Vaccine 2.0” designed for the mutants like Delta. (These variant-specific vaccines already exist by the way, because scientists knew the current situation might happen- but politicians need to tell the companies to make and deploy such vaccines, and the politicians are dithering- due to the fact that no one wants to accept reality or go “backwards” even though those are the facts.) (Besides Delta, Epsilon and Lambda can also get around current vaccines. Lambda looks esp dangerous, but it’s still a tiny minority of new US infections, and it’ll have to be significantly more contagious than Delta to replace Delta. We’ll need to watch it closely.)

WHAT ABOUT MASKS?

Use them in all indoor environments, and outdoors if you’re standing around for more than 5 minutes in a shoulder-to-shoulder crowd. Use N95 or KN95 masks; cloth masks are unlikely to be enough protection in a high risk environment. I have obtained and am also using Livinguard cloth masks, which have electrostatic fibers woven into the cloth; can be washed and reused (unlike N95 and KN95 masks); and based on German evaluation, Livinguard masks confer protection equal to a KN95. They make models for kids too.

WHAT ELSE CAN I DO?

Use a twice-daily nasal spray to coat your nose with an antiviral coating. You can buy Viruseptin, a Swedish product, off eBay or Bonanza. It contains carrageenan. Xlear is an American product that also confers protection; it contains grapefruit seed extract (GSE). There are other nasal spray brands similar to Xlear with GSE. Studies show broad antiviral traits of carrageenan and GSE in the test tube, including against SARS-CoV-2. Since the nose is where COVID gets a foothold, usually, I think nasal sprays are important protection. Ultimately I think better COVID vaccines will be given by nasal spray rather than shots.

WHAT ABOUT MY EYES?

If you have to be indoors with other humans for more than 15 min, wear a face shield or goggles. Recent research shows even regular glasses are protective compared to no eye protection at all.

WHAT ABOUT SUPPLEMENTS?

While research-based proof of benefit is mixed for some of these, they have low risk of side effects and are not pricey, so there’s little downside to using, so long as you don’t use them as an excuse to eschew protections like avoiding crowded indoor spaces or using masks. Vitamin D3 2000 units daily ensures you aren’t deficient in this nutrient, which helps ward off respiratory viral infections esp in those deficient in Vit D. Zinc 20-40mg daily is reasonable, but I think promptly sucking on zinc lozenges every 1-2 hours for 2-3 days at the first sign of sniffles or scratchy throat may work better- there’s strong literature on all respiratory viruses for this use of zinc. (After a few months of daily oral zinc, take a break. It’s possible though rare to take too much zinc.) Quercetin 500 mg twice daily may be helpful and I use it. Pepcid antacid 20 mg twice daily has had some evidence of protection against COVID and there’s little downside to using it, so I do. I also take melatonin 5mg daily at bedtime.

If I were to suspect I had contracted COVID, I would up the quercetin to 500mg three times daily; add Vitamin C 2000mg daily (and not take it at same time as zinc, as it may make you vomit; space out by a couple of hours); and add NAC (N-acetylcystine) 1000 mg twice daily.

WHAT ABOUT PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES?

The Federal govt has purchased 1.7 million courses of molnupiravir, a new, specific anti-COVID oral medication made by Merck and discovered at Emory University. The drug must complete trials before Merck can apply for emergency FDA approval, and they’d have to make millions of doses, so I doubt we’ll see it available during surge 4, but maybe by surge 5 this winter (we will need it). Meanwhile, I have ordered favipiravir, which *might* work against COVID if given in high doses very early in infection. I ordered from India, but it likely won’t arrive until early Sept if it gets here at all.

Other existing drugs have been tried against COVID. Despite early interest in hydroxychloroquine, when we finally studied it, we learned it was more likely to cause bad side effects and had no impact on COVID. Ivermectin has somewhat better data but some of the studies were really garbage; it might be worth taking if there were no standard treatments available. Fenofibrate and statin cholesterol drugs are being studied for COVID and we’ll see if they help. If you’re already on a statin or fenofibrate, keep taking it.

The monoclonal antibodies like what Trump got appear not to work against Delta. This is not a surprise. When a person tests positive for COVID we don’t check their strain, so doctors may still order monoclonals if someone looks pretty sick or is at risk of getting pretty sick. Since 93% of US COVID is now Delta, it may not help much. Again, it’s perhaps better than nothing, on the off chance it’s not Delta strain.

Steroids only help if you need oxygen, and harm if you’re doing okay on room air. Get a pulse oximeter for home; if you’re above 93%, you don’t need a medical facility. Antibiotics don’t help unless you *also* have a bacterial infection (in which case, you’ll be in the hospital). If you’re not sick enough to be in hospital, you won’t need either steroids or antibiotics for COVID.

WHAT ABOUT TESTING?

Existing COVID tests can detect Delta. As many of you know, Abbott Labs now sells Binax Now, a 15 min test for COVID, over the counter. I bought some on Amazon; $25 for two tests. It is reasonably sensitive (65-70%) at detecting a *symptomatic* COVID case, but only about 35% able to detect an asymptomatic infection (and likely many vaccinated persons who get infected will have no obvious symptoms).

Delta can look like allergies (runny nose, sneezing, nasal congestion, sore throat) or typical COVID (fever, cough, muscle aches). If you have what could be COVID symptoms, *don’t rely on one home rapid test being negative to rule out COVID*. Given the lower sensitivity of the home tests, I’d want to see the test be negative two days in a row at least before deciding it was something else- and I’d assume it’s COVID meanwhile and stay the hell away from other humans, cats, and dogs. I’d also arrange PCR testing at a clinic while home testing- don’t rely on a home test alone if you have symptoms.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OF OUTBREAKS, TRAVEL, SHUT DOWNS?

I doubt we will see lockdowns, mostly out of political considerations- the Biden administration doesn’t want to embrace that our hope to get to herd immunity and finish this pandemic has failed, and that we’re going to see surges in autumn and winter at the least.

Based on what’s happening in the UK, which has 60% of population fully vaccinated and has mostly Delta circulating, this current 4th surge will continue to build through around Sept 7, and then drop through Oct 7 or so. I expect end of Oct to be between surges, kind of like last year. We’ll likely then see a holiday surge, just like last year.

Increasingly the use of lockdowns, etc., will be foisted on local health authorities, because the state and Federal governments will be too cowardly to call for such. You can look at the crises in Missouri, Arkansas and Florida to see what letting local health authorities call the shots will mean.

Even those with forbearance and caution are going to get increasingly tired of maintaining vigilance.

Speaking as someone from a high risk community who survived the last pandemic of a lethal virus: Even responsible people will get tired of eternal vigilance and an emergency that feels like it will never end.

SO, WHAT’S OUR ENDGAME?

Again, speaking as someone who survived the last lethal viral pandemic without getting infected, I advise cautious behaviors to delay infection as long as you can. The COVID cases I treated in July 2020 had a much higher chance of surviving their infection than those I saw in March 2020. Likewise, I waited my entire adult life for an AIDS vaccine that never arrived- but we *did* eventually get PREP, instead, which achieved the same protections.

It is likely that we will figure out why some COVID infections produce organ damage and Long COVID fatigue and brain fog, and have preventive or treatment maneuvers to reduce that risk. My advice above on how to make sure your infection is very mild, if it happens at all, is targeted towards the goal of reducing such complications. At end of year I expect the COVID-specific antiviral pill molnupiravir to be available, and that will help ensure any infection that happens will be able to be treated aggressively and early, which should prevent organ injury.

There is some intriguing research suggesting Long COVID fatigue might result from the activation of Epstein Barr virus (EBV) by the immune effects of acute COVID—so I’d also suggest considering starting high dose acyclovir or Valtrex during acute COVID, and continuing it for at least a couple of weeks after recovery. That’s a pretty technical point for those of you who aren’t medical providers, but talk to your treating doctor if you do get COVID, esp if it’s pretty bad symptoms. There’s no proof it would help, but acyclovir and Valtrex are very safe drugs, and can be given as cheap generics, so I see little downside.
I’d suggest a short-term personal goal of aggressively avoiding COVID until you can get a COVID 3rd dose booster, or Vaccine 2.0, and/or the Merck oral anti-COVID pill as needed, and/or we figure out how to ensure a COVID infection doesn’t damage your brain/heart/other organs. (It’s possible that this last goal might take Vaccine 3.0, which will target virus proteins beyond spike protein.)

This advice may mean canceling non-essential travel this fall and winter until we have better protections, like antiviral oral drugs, easily and widely available.

Based on the experience and inferred history of other beta coronaviruses, almost all humans (95-99% depending on the specific coronavirus species) get these viruses eventually. The unvaccinated patients whose plan is “I’ll just avoid it, I’m careful” are deluding themselves. Unless you live in a spacesuit, forever, you’re going to get COVID eventually. In fact, with other coronaviruses, a substantial minority of adults (~40%) will get *two* infections of the same virus in a calendar year. Since they mostly just cause sniffles, or no symptoms, no one really cares. Original COVID was on its way to becoming a similar chronic head cold virus with death rates similar to flu (which, I’ll remind you all, still kills 200 kids in the US each year) in maybe 10 years, unless we’d gotten to herd immunity. That’s what we call “endemicity”- it’s around; frequent; and annoying, but not very lethal. With Delta, while this fall and winter look uncomfortably like last year to me, with possibly substantial deaths in the unvaccinated, mostly, the silver lining is that the time to endemicity may be as quick now as one more year only. (See Lavigne Et al Science 12 Feb 2021: Vol. 371, Issue 6530, pp. 741-745 DOI: 10.1126/science.abe6522 if you want the math on that). For us older adults, however, we’ll still likely need Vaccine 2.0 or 3.0 to keep COVID firmly in the “not lethal” category.

I strongly suggest the podcasts “The Osterholm Update” and the clinical update episodes with Dr. Daniel Griffin of “This Week in Virology” podcast for those who need smart, humanitarian COVID news.

Love you all. Stay safe.
Rick Loftus, MD”

Edited August 12, 2021 by bumpyride