Is Covid-19 Impacting You, Your Carving or Your Local Mtn.?

[Jack M]

On 9/25/2020 at 12:47 PM, Allee said:

How immediate is immediate? Test results here are taking up to five days to process due to the backlog, and wait times sure aren't going to improve if a whole bunch of asymptomatic people are lining up every weekend. Not sure if your situation's any better there, but there's a finite number of staff, labs, and hours in a day anywhere.

 

I'm not exactly sure, but it was 72 hours before visit.  Not sure if that means test administered and results received within 72 hours, or just results received.  It's moot now as the Maine governor has lifted the restriction on Massachusetts travelers.

[Corey]

Numbers are rapidly climbing again here after being quite low for a while, so we're rolling back to level Orange. No gatherings over 10 people. 

About 50% of people are wearing face masks in any given place. Required for entry to Walmart, public transit, and all government buildings. 

[TVR]

This is one of those subjects one cannot comment on without being chastised for being political. I will post more facts, specific to the area I ride in.

In Maine, there have been a total death count of 133 people. (https://www.mainepublic.org/post/maine-cdc-another-person-covid-19-dies-case-load-increases-19 ) There has been an increase of cases, and now the state is also in an "Orange" state for the rating system. So far this year, more people in Maine have killed themselves (suicide) than are dying by COVID. 

Other statistics for Maine:

For statistical relevance, Maine has a population of approximately 1,344,212 people ( https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/ME )

With 133 people who died from COVID, this means it killed 0.00098% of the population.

There were 121 auto fatalities this year (https://www.maine.gov/dps/bhs/) at 0.00090%  of the population.

There were 3350 deaths from Cancer this year so far (https://cancerstatisticscenter.cancer.org/#!/state/Maine) at 0.0249%  of the population.

Maine has a higher than US average of Suicide each year at averaging over 200 a year (https://www.pressherald.com/interactive/data-maines-suicide-rate-higher-nations-average-rising/) at 0.0056%  of the population.

There were even 12 deaths this year by lightning (https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-fatalities) with 2 on 8/5/2020. For reference, there was one COVID death on 8/23 and the next one was on 8/26 so one could literally state one had a better chance of being struck (to death)  by lightning in Maine on some days than dying from COVID-19.

Per this thread, "Is Covid-19 Impacting You, Your Carving or Your Local Mtn.?" COVID-19 will not be affecting me on my local hill, as it will be people who will be affecting me. I will do the mountain requirements, and adjust my riding only in so far as to work with the mountain. The statistics just don't show me that I need to hide from the public, become a hermit, or stop doing everything I love to do. I will socialize with like minded boarders as I see them, and will go have some fun.

[Atom Ant]

Agreed with TVR on the overall vibe / approach as my immediate area is similar.  Not to be applied broadly across the country, obviously.  Reality of geography.  Sucks to be a new yorker right now.  Is what it is.

That said, the hyper focus on deaths is ridiculously narrow on the spectrum of points that can be made on this subject.  This is a novel virus, we do not know or yet appreciate the full spectrum of health related issues it posses.  Do I think I will die of Covid-19?  No.  Is it possible it leaves many with sever and possibly perminent health effects?  Research currently points towards "possible", and if one is going to make an argument in the direction of "common sense" related to restrictions then this fact needs to be accounted for (and for which there are few bankable stats on).  This I have rarely seen amongst the "common sensers" for lack of a better label.  Maybe I'm just missing it, who knows.

Regardless, do what you feel is safe and comfortable and so long as others are not put at risk by your own decisions... You do you.

[SunSurfer]

USA population approx 328 million (2019 US Census Bureau)
USA Covid deaths 200,000 approx as of end Sept 2020.

USA motor vehicle crash related deaths 2018:  36,500

According to the NOAA, over the last 20 years, the United States averaged 51 annual lightning strike fatalities, placing it in the second position, just behind floods for deadly weather. (Maine is clearly a dangerous place to play golf, or carry other long metal containing objects outside. )

CDC: Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure.

NIAAA: An estimated 88,0005 people (approximately 62,000 men and 26,000 women) die from alcohol-related causes annually, making alcohol the third leading preventable cause of death in the United States. The first is tobacco, and the second is poor diet and physical inactivity.

Putting the virus' impact in perspective with other life shortening health events is useful when trying to work out what level of intervention/health toll is acceptable in any given country. Alcohol, cigarettes and motor vehicles are legal products that cause substantial early death in countries all over the world. Societies intervene in the free market to control their use in a variety of ways.

Leaders may choose very different Covid19 intervention strategies, Sweden a good example of a lesser level of intervention, but clearly communicated to its' population.

Excess death is currently all that can be accurately counted about Covid19 in the vast majority of countries with active Covid outbreaks.
Actual case numbers are considerable under estimates.
Health services are only starting to get a picture of what the long term health damage and life shortening impact is following survival from Covid infection.

9 hours ago, Atom Ant said:

Regardless, do what you feel is safe and comfortable and so long as others are not put at risk by your own decisions... You do you.

In the apparent chaos (to an outside observer) that is the USA's federal level response to Covid that's a reasonable approach for someone who sees themselves as a member of a community. If anything, I would err on the side of my neighbour's safety over my comfort.

[Neil Gendzwill]

Deaths are relatively low here in Canada because we have been taking this seriously. As fatigue sets in people are being less cautious and having the attitude TVR has, namely “doesn’t seem that risky, I’ll do as I please”. As a result we’re in the middle of a second wave. We’ve just seen record new case days in Ontario and Quebec. Quebec has been forced to lock down again.  I know people’s patience has worn thin but it is not yet time to take the foot off the gas. If we had not taken the measures we have it would be far, far worse. 

[TVR]

Canada has a population of approximately 37,825,556 with 9,289 deaths from COVID or 0.024% of the population has died from COVID.

This was with lockdowns, restrictions, and full governmental involvement.

Sweeden has a population of approximately 10,115,081 with 5,890 deaths from COVID or 0.058% of the population has died from COVID.

This was with no lockdowns, restrictions. or government mandates. 

I contrast these two countries as they took opposite approaches to how to handle this.

 

With the death rate so low, I just will not live my life in fear, even if I was to get it. I am not going to go out of my way to make anyone uncomfortable, but I am also not going to go hiking a mountain with my family or by myself with a face mask on. The above also explains why we have not seen the homeless population decimated by this as well. One would have expected with their poor health habits and their inability to get a hold of any PPE, to be decimated with infection and death rates significantly higher than the general public. This never materialized (and this is a good thing) because the actual death rate for this simply isn't very high. Percentages don't lie. If we look at the above data and start to look into the age variance, this is where this becomes concerning. This is an old persons pandemic, and those are the ones who are at risk. People who are above 60 are the ones who should be much more cautions, especially if they have any underlying conditions.

SOURCES:
(https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/)

(https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/sweden-population/)

(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)

(https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)

Again, I am not doing anything to make others uncomfortable, but simply put, I don't see the need to panic. 

Edited September 29, 2020 by TVR
added context.

[Neil Gendzwill]

Well of course I would not expect you to be hiking with a mask on, that's clearly not necessary.  I think people who are doing things like that just don't understand the rationale behind masks.  But deaths aren't the only fallout from this disease, there is evidence that serious long-term respiratory damage can occur even in younger people who have mild symptoms.

It's also true that this affects older people harder than younger.  A lot of the people who hang out here are older.  I'm pushing 60 and I know I am far from the oldest here.  It would behoove many of us to be cautious.

[Dan]

Question for TVR: We're running at 4x the number of American deaths in Vietnam, and have a shot at surpassing the number of American deaths in WW2 (about halfway there right now). Our national response to both those crises was, I think we could agree, very robust. Would you say those efforts were warranted? What's the difference between then and now? 

Also, are you aware of the heart disease linked to covid - even mild and asymptomatic cases? Does that impact your view of the virus' severity? 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/opinion/covid-19-heart-disease.html - key section quoted below:

An intriguing new study from Germany offers a glimpse into how SARS-CoV-2 affects the heart. Researchers studied 100 individuals, with a median age of just 49, who had recovered from Covid-19. Most were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.

An average of two months after they received the diagnosis, the researchers performed M.R.I. scans of their hearts and made some alarming discoveries: Nearly 80 percent had persistent abnormalities and 60 percent had evidence of myocarditis. The degree of myocarditis was not explained by the severity of the initial illness.

Though the study has some flaws, and the generalizability and significance of its findings not fully known, it makes clear that in young patients who had seemingly overcome SARS-CoV-2 it’s fairly common for the heart to be affected. We may be seeing only the beginning of the damage.

 

 

[BobD]

Sweden's COVID response may be an interesting case study for epidemiologist, but it's not remotely something that can be used for casual comparison with the United States COVID response. 

If the US had a population that would comply with non-mandated government request that would temporarily impact their lifestyles, publicly funded healthcare for all, universal sick pay, strong employment protections, livable unemployment pay, robust social safety net, and a generally healthier population, then maybe a casual comparison might start to be possible. Also Sweden did not have the issue of politicians downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic. Although the were no mandated restrictions, politicians actively encouraged people to be responsible. 

Sweden's COVID deaths might be compared with it's Scandinavian neighbors that did mandate lock downs and restrictions similar to those in the US. Using that comparison, if the US has followed the Swedish example, the number of COVID deaths in the US would likely now be several times what is. If that had happened, imagine the effect it would have had on our society, with mass graves, and hospitals completely overrun. The effect on the economy would have been an order of magnitude worse.

[lordmetroland]

10 minutes ago, BobD said:

Sweden's COVID response may be an interesting case study for epidemiologist, but it's not remotely something that can be used for casual comparison with the United States COVID response. 

Enough obfuscation with your "sensible comparisons" and "knowledge of Scandinavia." Clearly the point is that we have found the vaccine and it is homelessness. Finally, a compelling reason to get out from under this crushing mortgage and the suffocating expectations of my suburban neighbors. Freedom (and health) is waiting for me under a bridge!

[lowrider]

 I have the ability and intelligence to be aware of risk the resources to protect myself and the desire to live so i will protect my self from those who are unwilling to be good citizens or are ignorant of the facts of science and what exponential growth is . Anybody know what color of jacket is correct for the upcoming season ? 

[Lurch]

3 hours ago, lowrider said:

Anybody know what color of jacket is correct for the upcoming season ? 

Coronaburst. With pangolin leather boots. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Lurch
For those about to rock; we salute you!

[lowrider]

15 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Coronaburst. With pangolin leather boots. 

I think i could rock with that combo !

[Jack M]

So... someone sent this to me... I'm not sure what to make of this science, and I just don't have time in my life to become an expert on this stuff.

This study found no evidence that masks reduce the spread of "pandemic influenza".  Does that also mean they aren't effective for covid?  What do you think?

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

[Chouinard]

The data will set you free.

heraclitusoncovid19.com

[TVR]

Sorry Chouinard, but this doesn't fit the acceptable narrative. I think I might need to file a petition and have that information, regardless of its veracity or any truth, stricken from anyone's eyes or their ability to read it. Surely by posting any information contrary to the accepted dogma, you must wish people dead, and you must be someone incapable of wearing a mask to make others feel safe, while questioning whether it is needed. 

[Corey]

At the very least, we can be confident that the hyperbole skills of both 'sides' are still strong and resilient in the face of a struggle. 

[Chouinard]

Not looking for acceptance...only seek the truth. Hyperbole no...the data don’t lie. 

It is criminal what we have been subject to and I look forward to the day when the perpetrators and their accomplices, whoever they may be, meet  their just rewards.

 

[BobD]

On 10/1/2020 at 3:13 PM, Jack M said:

So... someone sent this to me... I'm not sure what to make of this science, and I just don't have time in my life to become an expert on this stuff.

This study found no evidence that masks reduce the spread of "pandemic influenza".  Does that also mean they aren't effective for covid?  What do you think?

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Check out the names authoring the study linked below. If they sound familiar, it's because many appear on the study in the CDC article. 

The science of masks, and their effectiveness is way more complicated than I would ever have imagined several months ago. 

I think most people still don't understand that there is an infectious viral dose required for a viral infection to take hold. Because there can be no human experiments with COVID-19, that dose is as yet unknown. Any measure that reduces the the infectious viral load, might make the difference between an infection taking hold, or not. There are studies with other viruses that suggest that reducing the infectious viral load might reduce the severity of an infection. Until we know for sure, these seem good reasons to wear a mask.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

Edited October 3, 2020 by BobD

[bumpyride]

18 hours ago, Jack M said:

So... someone sent this to me... I'm not sure what to make of this science, and I just don't have time in my life to become an expert on this stuff.

This study found no evidence that masks reduce the spread of "pandemic influenza".  Does that also mean they aren't effective for covid?  What do you think?

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

Here's the crux of that article:

We did not consider the use of respirators in the community. Respirators are tight-fitting masks that can protect the wearer from fine particles (37) and should provide better protection against influenza virus exposures when properly worn because of higher filtration efficiency. However, respirators, such as N95 and P2 masks, work best when they are fit-tested, and these masks will be in limited supply during the next pandemic. These specialist devices should be reserved for use in healthcare settings or in special subpopulations such as immunocompromised persons in the community, first responders, and those performing other critical community functions, as supplies permit.

It is essential to note that the mechanisms of person-to-person transmission in the community have not been fully determined. Controversy remains over the role of transmission through fine-particle aerosols (3,46).

 

After reading this article to say that proper KN95 and N95 masks, are not effective from this article indicates that one did not fully read the article.  It does however suggest that surgical (loose fitting) masks and non-compliant masks are probably not going to be all the effective.  When a person uses a bandana/porous fleece/ill fitting mask, you're taking your chances.

I would totally reject any inference that proper masking is not effective.  It's the details in this article that give no credence on PROPER PPE being  not effective.  People tend to glean an article's points to prove their case, and in this case I see nothing that negates the effectiveness of proper masking.

[lowrider]

Lets argue the facts after your dead ! Wearing a mask and cleaning your hands help to reduce the risk of contracting covid (the flue, common colds etc. ) as well as reducing the risk of spread. Unchecked it will kill  lots of people controlled it will kill some. The outcome is entirely up to each of us. The fact that more aren't dead tells me some people have been contributing to the welfare of others while the latest increase tells me more people could be doing more to reduce the spread. It  is up to you to choose life or death for yourself not for to you to decide for others. As for what is  required behavior do i wear a helmet, buckle my seatbelt stop at a stop light  ?  Yes ! Lock downs ( i don't like the term but it is what it is ) are because too many people won't do the minimum that is required and for that we all pay the price. You can live like a pig in your own pen but the trouble starts when you mingle with the others. Lets say for argument sake we all decide tomorrow not to stop at the stop signs do you think anyone will get hurt ? Sometimes i wish the consequences for bad behavior were more severe. It seems that earth is getting flatter every day !

[TVR]

Sorry, but I missed the part where someone stated they won't wear a mask when in public or we should not perform basic hygiene for cleanliness. Maybe I missed it. 

On the other hand, I think arguing the facts before one is dead is the very essence of why we can say the earth is not flat. I have, however, read of times where one was not allowed to argue the facts, and in fact were called "heretics" for questioning anything. (If I remember correctly, the facts argued were often about whether one would sail off the side of a flat earth) 

It seems the earth was staying flatter every day........

[Jack M]

13 hours ago, bumpyride said:

It does however suggest that surgical (loose fitting) masks and non-compliant masks are probably not going to be all the effective.

This is what I was referring to.  These are the masks that 9999 out of 10000 people are wearing by my estimation.

[st_lupo]

@bumpyride summarized It very well.  It was a statistical survey that observed that in the collected data there was little correlation between masks/hand hygiene and the prevention of influenza type viruses in the general public.

This is science; on this topic there is no definitive, comprehensive answer and you need to be willing to evolve your viewpoints as the science evolves.  There needs to be acceptance that observations/expert-recommendations will evolve over time as our understanding of the virus evolves and our tools mature from statistical observations to (hopefully) models of the actual transmission/infection mechanics.  

Please, out of an abundance of caution, mask up (properly), exercise good hygiene and follow the guidance of the experts (scientists, medical research professionals), and not political appointees.  Don't fall into the trap that masks do nothing.  Likewise, don't fall into the trap that masks are a silver bullet.  Masks/hygiene may not directly prevent transmission of covid (and if the data bears that out we need to be willing to accept that) but there are other illnesses that the study points to that are effectively managed by masks/hygiene, and that itself can have an important effect on how society is able to function during the pandemic.