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Is Covid-19 Impacting You, Your Carving or Your Local Mtn.?


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2 hours ago, TVR said:

I agree with the sentiment of what you are saying. I would like to add, however, that this particular hazard is specifically being politicized. When someone looks at the raw data, the numbers being given to us simply don't add up. I am not negating the potential for harm this specific disease can cause, especially where there are pre-existing underlying conditions, but I am having a difficult time accepting everything being pushed as fact about this. 

Since I posted the total deaths from ALL causes in the US link to the CDC graph (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm), that page has been edited to no longer show that information. Why, I ask. What harm can it do to look at statistics? Unfortunately, those specific statistics show the death from COVID has completely leveled, which contradicts all the lockdowns and all those looking to impose them. This specific disease is being used as a weapon to instill fear and disrupt peoples lives for political gain.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/07032020/nchs-mortality-report.html has the data as well, but it only goes back to September of 2019. This, however, is still useful to make my point. Assuming the pandemic started on January 1, on can see all deaths from any influenza type event up to week 26 total to approximately 208,500. Subtracting the number given of 176,000 deaths from COVID, this leaves 32,500 for those 26 weeks. This would mean it would average 1250 a week, which would mean we must have cured the common cold, as normally, there are at least 3500 deaths each and every week.

Now I get this is week 35 as I write this. I am not trying to say that there are no deaths or that COVID is some form of hoax. What I am saying is, given the raw numbers, what is being stated as "fact" on the numbers doesn't add up. All these states looking to either impose new lockdowns of adding new measures to "protect the public" are doing so to look effective and the primary motivation are politics. I used the example of TB for the following reason. It is a global threat, that had global scientists look into, the treatments and it, as a disease is not political, and the facts are readily available. As deadly as it is, no one felt they needed to destroy the lives of half the world through hunger and poverty, and talking about it didn't carry the stigma of putting you into a 'believers' camp, or a 'deniers' camp.

BTW, using Jan 1 has pandemic start quite convenient to make your point as most COVID deaths occured past mid-march. And  that most Influenza caused death usually occur from Dec to April.  Start at the April timeline and you'll see that your line of thought doesn't add up.    Flu is seasonal (Dec-Mar mostly).  You can't extrapolate those numbers for every week of the year.

Using your own quoted  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/07032020/nchs-mortality-report.html  chart, you can see that from week 1-11 never reach more than 4500 (give or take a few).  And what happens after?  the numbers just jump.   (some over 300%) What happened?  COVID. As much as you don't believe it, that's what caused it.  Yes, spikes do occur from influenza.  2018 had one, I believe 2014 also had one. And those spikes are in Jan-Mar. But nothing compared to what happened this year and later than the flu season.  Past skipes don't even  come close to this year and there was a lockdown to "reduce" the spread.

BTW, avg death from Influenza in the US is estimated to be round 35Kyear:  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html  and most have  occured in Dec-Mar.  So by then, starting april, those deaths aren't as significant in the stats. 

 

Now, the charts below are interesting as they show excess deaths from other countries.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

I guess they all had a "flu" issue there too?

I also applied the excess deaths logic to my province (Quebec) that was hit hard (AFAIK, we're worst than the US with COVID deaths per capita) and you see a big spike during april and may (a bit less in june) that can only be explained by COVID (and that other flue related spikes are nowhere near this year's numbers (and that's with a complete lockdown).

BTW, why would politics be the driving force into this "minor" pandemic?  I'd be interested in hearing your theory...  Cause as a politician, I sure wouldn't want to bring my govt (local, state/prov/region, country) to a standstill unless I really have to.  Otherwise that would be political suicide. 

I understand that for many people, this is a tough time.  And during those times, many are looking for a quick resolution (and that's normal).  And we question many of the policies of our governments (local,state/prov,country).  I have and it's a good thing.  Nothing's perfect.  And it's a good thing to bring them up.  I question my govts' (Quebec) wall to wall lockdown.  Some regions had little or no cases.  There could have been more  "leeway" than the harder hit regions (Montreal Met) especially that they essentially closed off those regions (no inter-region travel).  They did let grade school finish of their year in school locations.  But only outside the hard hit areas.  So kudos for that.

 

Finally, having access to all types of media screaming conflicting facts/opinion doesn't help.  But excess deaths don't lie.  It's good you bring them up but I strongly believe you're not reading the numbers right.

 

As a side and happier note, I spent a good hour with Jasey talking about nothing and eveything and my new board!!!  Just can't wait to get back on the slopes. And I really believe we'll be back on the slopes this winter.

 

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I have been really looking forward to making this post, and thankfully I can.  Fourteen days from exposure and a whole lot of nothing to report.  To say I am overjoyed would be an understatement

John please stop! I know it hurts but the goal shouldn't be how do we get more turns in. It shouldn't be how to circumvent the system and travel. Please be responsible and drop it! Our goal

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3 hours ago, Corey said:

Who benefits from a lockdown? Or having people wear masks? 

Don’t be bringing logic into this. Your thoughts are probably controlled by 5G thingies that have optimal breeding conditions in masks, anyway. 

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44 minutes ago, crote123 said:

As a side and happier note, I spent a good hour with Jasey talking about nothing and eveything and my new board!!!  Just can't wait to get back on the slopes. And I really believe we'll be back on the slopes this winter.

 

well said!  Tell us more about your new board 🙂 
On one hand COVID-19 give board maker less testing time/shorter season

It also meant there is less distraction so maybe more time for R&D
What do we think the overall impact is?  positive or negative in that narrow context?

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58 minutes ago, pow4ever said:

well said!  Tell us more about your new board 🙂 
On one hand COVID-19 give board maker less testing time/shorter season

It also meant there is less distraction so maybe more time for R&D
What do we think the overall impact is?  positive or negative in that narrow context?

You clearly haven't factored in an excellent golf season.

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13 hours ago, pow4ever said:

well said!  Tell us more about your new board 🙂

Replacing a 157ClearZ with the same but shorter radius (something 8.9/8/8.9) and reducing the thickness a tiny bit at the waist.  Wanted something even more turny (the previous one was just too close to a 163ClearZ that I have).  This one will be more for the icy/narrow/steeps that we have at my local bump.  More on it when I get it.  I should be one of the first builds this autumn.  I believe his current slots are for skis right now.

 

12 hours ago, lowrider said:

You clearly haven't factored in an excellent golf season.

I'm glad Jasey is not a golf nut like Bruce! ⛳😃

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On 8/24/2020 at 6:18 PM, Neil Gendzwill said:

Don’t be bringing logic into this. Your thoughts are probably controlled by 5G thingies that have optimal breeding conditions in masks, anyway. 

Now you mention it, I’m surprised the run was on toilet paper and not tin foil. I know I’ve stocked up on Reynolds Wrap. It has the highest deflection factor.

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2 hours ago, lordmetroland said:

Now you mention it, I’m surprised the run was on toilet paper and not tin foil. I know I’ve stocked up on Reynolds Wrap. It has the highest deflection factor.

But you can dual use toilet paper.  A giant TP turban is exactly as effective as a tinfoil hat.  Conversly, tinfoil... isn’t so good.

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Our local area has put on their website their plans for the upcoming season:

 https://skiloveland.com/coronavirusupdate/?utm_source=newsletter_1499&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=fall-sales-blast-sp

They say that people cannot ride a lift with people that they don't live with. This is going to be interesting to enforce. I assume that a lot of folks will drive up the the area with people they don't live with. If you spend an hour in a car with someone you don't live with, how are you protecting anyone by not riding a chairlift with them?

It also says that they lodge capacity will be severely limited. 

Have other areas made statements on how they intend to handle this situation? Are they similar to this plan? It sounds like these measures will severely limit the capacity of the area. I wonder how they are going to limit the number of people who drive up? Reservations? A lottery????

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Interesting. I'm assuming that the demand will exceed the supply (maybe by a lot). If so, how will the reservation system work? First come first serve? How long in advance can one reserve? What if I reserve and don't show up? What if I reserve many of the popular days??

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  • 2 weeks later...

Thank you Jack for posting this, as it has some interesting statistics from the raw data. 

One of the challenges in life is to speak up when your voice is in direct opposition to the accepted and demanded dogma of the society as a whole. By asking questions about why, with respect to COVID, people tend to immediately go to the position that you are denying COVID exists at all. Even when presenting evidence to validate you are not denying it, that evidence is reinterpreted to be some alternate form of denial, and then of course, you must be a conspiracy theory nut. This is history repeating itself, as it tends to do. We all now talk about the Iraq war, and how we all knew there were no weapons of mass destruction, but I remember very distinctly being the "tinfoil hat" guy where people were asking if " I’ve stocked up on Reynolds Wrap." as after all, " It has the highest deflection factor." Although everyone "KNOWS" there were none now, I knew there were none then.

COVID is like so many other viral infections. It will kill off those susceptible to it, and those who are healthy and have immune systems that can fight it off, will. Every death is tragic, and everyone who has a loss from a family member of loved one will feel it. No one asking questions is denying anyone's humanity. No one is looking to go out and kill people. No one asking questions about the lockdowns or whether masks make a significant difference are being anti-science. They are in fact, being fully scientific; it is called the socratic method.

 

This pandemic is now becoming politicized. I have said this before, and am saying it again. One might ask "Who benefits from a lockdown? Or having people wear masks? " which is a good, logical question. One might also ask why would a politician bring COVID into the conversation. They "sure wouldn't want to bring my govt (local, state/prov/region, country) to a standstill unless I really have to.  Otherwise that would be political suicide." I can answer that with one simple word. Fear. Fear makes people do things they normally would not do. Fear is making people not speak up, even when they know they are both right, as well as morally right. Fear makes people want change, and change is in the interest of many in politics right now. 

I am not going to go into a more in-depth political discussion in here. I am not going to debate the merits of ridiculing those who ask questions, the affects of cancel culture, or of the stifling of anyone who speaks out against the prescribed dogma. I will say, as I have before, for everyone do do what they feel is safe for them. If you don't like the crowds or feel uncomfortable when there is a mass gathering, leave and stay safe. Do what makes you feel more comfortable, is best for you, and take care of your health. I will do the same, but I am not going to constantly worry, and I am planning to make the most of this upcoming season as I have done every year for the last 8 years with my son. The data looks to me to say the worst is behind us, and I expect this to all magically go away after the elections by mid January as it will no longer hold any political power. 

 

Not looking to offend anyone, and I am not looking to impose my thought upon anyone else; my thoughts are not actions. These are my thoughts and this is how I see it. In no way should they impose any burden upon anyone else and I hope people keep asking questions about this and everything in life. Science is the socratic method.

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TVR you have a positive attitude. That's good ! In Canada infection rates had  flattened out but now that school is back and bars have reopened numbers are climbing again. The leaders of our two largest provinces have just met and are warning people to act responsibly not asking. I would like to share your optimism that this will go away after the election  but it is on that point that we differ. Human behavior is the driving force at play right now and my faith that enough people do the right thing is being put to the test daily. 

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1 hour ago, lowrider said:

In Canada infection rates had  flattened out but now that school is back and bars have reopened numbers are climbing again.

An interesting thing about that is that while cases are rising again with school reopening and other factors, deaths are not rising at the same rate, if at all, depending on region.  Northeast US (New England, NY, NJ, PA) is especially interesting.

Deaths/day:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=US-Northeast&show=highlight-only&y=fixed&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-all#states

Cases/day:

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=US-Northeast&show=highlight-only&y=fixed&scale=linear&data=cases-daily&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-all#states

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Note in the video a 23 day lag was factored in between new case and deaths correlations.

Overall, excess deaths is a reasonable marker of the overall impact of Covid. Case diagnosis has so many variables around it across the various countries being analysed. Death is a reasonably definitive diagnosis I'd like to think that, as an experienced doctor, I'd make correctly.

Time will tell with this event who was right. In any evolving situation with many unknowns, after the event hindsight gives perfect vision.

If correct it is a very humbling analysis for the (lack of) efficacy of public health interventions to alter the spread of an infectious viral agent.

Ivor Cummins appears to be a chemical engineer by training who is employed by an Irish charity called Irish Heart Disease Awareness. I can't see any obvious evidence that he has any particular axe to grind apart from a history of challenging academic orthodoxy.

Edited by SunSurfer
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The problem with comparing covid-19 to seasonal flu is that we have never had a regular flu season with quarantines, stay at home, working from home, social distancing, closing schools, etc. If we had ever taken these measures for a regular flu season, the flu deaths numbers might look very different. Comparing Sweden's covid deaths to the other Scandinavian countries that imposed strict restrictions, would suggest that covid related deaths in the US might have been several times higher had the restrictions not been implemented. 

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Yeah I tend to agree that quarantine/masks/distancing were the right moves, and not with the notion that they did nothing. But I think that regions where the curve has successfully been flattened, like the Northeast US, should be able to adapt.  Many here are still acting like it's March.

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Many are also acting like it's March 2019. Recent numbers looking more like March 2020. The good thing is testing has increased dramatically. Our federal gov't recently allocated millions for an isolation facility in Toronto to help those who can't  safely self isolate in their own home. Would they do this if this were going to be over in a few months ???                  Local bump still hasn't put forth their opening plan but deadline for early bird discount has been extended. I wonder what that means.

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If Cummins is right, then the current upsurge in "case" diagnoses in Northern Europe will not be matched with hospital admissions and deaths to anything like the same extent that was seen in March through June. Given the known lag between diagnosis and deaths, time will tell.

Testable hypotheses, based on previous observation and evidence, are at the foundation of science.

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56 minutes ago, SunSurfer said:

 

Testable hypotheses, based on previous observation and evidence, are at the foundation of science.

 However observation and evidence are now fake to some people. You can never have enough evidence to convince some of the obvious.

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Truly amazing that the only site I can find for reasonable discourse on this pandemic has been a snowboarding forum. Thank you all for giving your opinions and perspectives on this disease and keeping politics out of it for the most part. I've learned quite a bit from you about the pandemic. Of course, I've learned a lot here about carving as well, so maybe I shouldn't be so surprised...

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For more coverage, visit our complete coronavirus section here.

A new report by the CDC has linked COVID-19 cases to dining at restaurants.

In a month-long investigation completed in July, the CDC analyzed symptomatic outpatients from 11 U.S. health care facilities and found that adults who became infected with COVID-19 had reported dining at indoor or outdoor restaurants two weeks before getting sick.

“Adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test results were approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results,” the CDC wrote.

For the study, 154 symptomatic adults formed the case-patients and had tested positive for COVID-19. They were then compared to control participants, which included 160 adults who were symptomatic outpatients from the same health care facilities with negative test results.

ALSO: Higher restaurant spending could be linked to COVID-19 cases, study finds

According to the report, there weren’t significant differences observed between the groups when it came to participating in activities that didn’t include going to a restaurant. They included: retail shopping, gyms, salons, using public transportation, gatherings of 10 or less in a home, going to an office setting, or going to a bar or coffee shop.

So, why the discrepancy? The big culprit was the use of masks.

“Exposures and activities where mask use and social distancing are difficult to maintain, including going to places that offer on-site eating or drinking, might be important risk factors for acquiring COVID-19,” the CDC wrote. “Masks cannot be effectively worn while eating and drinking, whereas shopping and numerous other indoor activities do not preclude mask use.”

The CDC added that reports of exposure in restaurants have been linked to poor air circulation where direction, ventilation and intensity of airflow might affect the transmission of the virus, even if restaurants are following guidelines.

ALSO: Here’s how much Bay Area restaurants have spent to be COVID-19-prepared

“As communities reopen, efforts to reduce possible exposures at locations that offer on-site eating and drinking options should be considered to protect customers, employees, and communities.”

In San Francisco, restaurant patrons are required to wear face masks whenever they wait to be seated, leave the table or when a server takes their order. Masks are not required only when eating or drinking. But even as restaurateurs have adapted to the new normal, regulating mask usage is a complicated dance between being hospitable and following safety rules.

"There’s not enough money to have five extra staff just lifeguarding everybody to have a mask on between every bite," Ben Bleiman of Tonic Nightlife Group and the San Francisco Entertainment Commission told SFGATE last month. "We’re not kindergarten teachers. We’re really good at making people follow the rules, but asking somebody to do something seven times is really hard when it doesn’t rise to an egregious error."

The latest California COVID-19 report indicated that the state has a total 742,865 positive cases and 13,978 deaths.

Susana Guerrero is an SFGATE digital reporter. Email: Susana.Guerrero@sfgate.com | Twitter: @SusyGuerrero3

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4 hours ago, Kurt Swanson said:

Truly amazing that the only site I can find for reasonable discourse on this pandemic has been a snowboarding forum. Thank you all for giving your opinions and perspectives on this disease and keeping politics out of it for the most part. I've learned quite a bit from you about the pandemic. Of course, I've learned a lot here about carving as well, so maybe I shouldn't be so surprised...

Suspect that the reason for civil discourse is that that is the established "norm" here, maintained by the vigilance of our volunteer moderators.

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