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Warm Winter in the Northeast?


Scorpio
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Looks like the government is predicting it. Then again, haven't the past couple seasons out there been below par? Pray for snow guys.

Winter seen warmer than normal

The United States will have warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter in most of the country, except for the northern Plains and Northwest states, government weather experts predicted on Tuesday.

As for precipitation, it will be drier than average across the Southwest and the Southeast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projected in its winter forecast.

The Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, northern Rockies and Hawaii will be wetter than normal this winter, the agency predicted.

NOAA also forecast a weak to moderate La Nina weather phenomenon, which is marked by unusually cold temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, during the 2006-2007 winter.

"La Nina is here, with a weak to moderate event likely to persist through the winter," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA's's Climate Prediction Center.

In the U.S., La Nina usually brings wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and dryer warmer weather across the South.

"The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South. And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather," Halpert added.

NOAA also predicted the following:

* above-average temperatures in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic in response to the long-term warming trend.

* milder-than-average weather in northern Alaska and above-average temperature and precipitation in Hawaii

* across the country, according to NOAA's heating degree day forecast, December through February will be 2.8 percent warmer than the 30-year norm, but still 1.3 percent cooler than last winter.

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3:44 pm. 92 F.

Latest 90 recorded deg day in Raleigh NC. All-time record daily highs last 2 days. Ties for hottest summer/fall on record thusfar. Most 90+ deg days on record.

Bloody insufferable!

Gotta move to (northern) Vermont!!

PS Extreme Drought also...

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"In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic,temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance."

"This winter is predicted to be warmer than the 30-year norm. For the country as a whole, NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December through February projects a 2.8 percent warmer winter than the 30-year normal, but a 1.3 percent cooler winter than last year."

"Scientists base this forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of forecast tools from statistical techniques to extremely complex dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites. The outlook will be updated on Oct. 18 and again on Nov. 15 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time."

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Sounds like all you east coast guys need to have a fire sale on all of your high-end equipment so it can spend it's golden years in the fresh snow out west.

Better unload it while it's still worth 30% of retail!

So you want my 2 Alps, my M6, and my vintage SuperModel?... also my Scarpa AT's, my Burton Freecarves, and my three-year-old Malamutes???

Nyet! Nyet! Nyet!!

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They can predict but not with any accuracy greater than you or me.

perhaps in some cases, but they also have reasons for what results they come up with, not random guessing like you or me. also they aren't predicting any amounts of snow or specific temperatures. they're looking at trends and making generalizations about the season. this is all based on collected measurements.

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Here is a review of the NOAA record with respect to recent winter predictions in the northeastern us:

2000-2001: "Normal" temperatures forecasted, actual temperature 1.1 below normal.

2001-2002: "Colder" temperatures forecasted, actual temperature 6.5 above normal.

2002-2003: "Warmer" temperatures forecasted, actual temperatures 3.5 below normal.

2003-2004: "Normal" temperatures forecasted, actual temperatures 2.0 below normal.

2004-2005: "Colder" temperatures forecasted, actual temperatures 0.4 above normal.

2005-2006: "Equal chances" of above and below normal, actual temperatures 2.1 above.

2006-2007: "Warmer" temperatures forecasted, actual temperature 1.5 above normal

Certainly not much data here to support the theory that they are in any way accurate. Frankly, most "northeast" weather forecasts are for the major metropolitan areas and not for northern New England, Quebec and upstate NY.

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Here is a review of the NOAA record with respect to recent winter predictions in the northeastern us:

2000-2001: "Normal" temperatures forecasted, actual temperature 1.1 below normal.

2001-2002: "Colder" temperatures forecasted, actual temperature 6.5 above normal.

2002-2003: "Warmer" temperatures forecasted, actual temperatures 3.5 below normal.

2003-2004: "Normal" temperatures forecasted, actual temperatures 2.0 below normal.

2004-2005: "Colder" temperatures forecasted, actual temperatures 0.4 above normal.

2005-2006: "Equal chances" of above and below normal, actual temperatures 2.1 above.

2006-2007: "Warmer" temperatures forecasted, actual temperature 1.5 above normal

Certainly not much data here to support the theory that they are in any way accurate. Frankly, most "northeast" weather forecasts are for the major metropolitan areas and not for northern New England, Quebec and upstate NY.

not the data i'm talking about. i was referring to actual atmospheric measurements and calculations that are used to compare results to "the 30-year norm". also i never comment on NOAA's accuracy in assessing weather forecasts (let alone come up with my own theory on the matter). i only mention that "you or me" could not make a more accurate prediction of weather unless it was a lucky chance.

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Frankly, I don't recall speculating about any individual's ability to out-predict NOAA, as I don't believe that would be in any way possible.

That said, given the accuracy of NOAA predictions over the last decade or so, I wouldn't be hesitating to buy a season pass for northern New England or Quebec resorts.

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Frankly, I don't recall speculating about any individual's ability to out-predict NOAA, as I don't believe that would be in any way possible.

yes, that was exactly the point i was trying to make. it was not my intention to imply that you had made the comment about out predicting NOAA and I apologize for not making that clear as well.

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Here are the NOAA "pretty pictures" that show the forecast.

NOAA's pretty right on for short term wind forecasts, they just tell it like it is

( it's free, no subscription like some sites....ahem, iwindsurf.com aka liewindsurf.com)

Don't know about long term Farmer's Almanac type predictions with NOAA's history.

Last year was a pretty bad drought at the beginning of the year and then it kicked in HARD until spring.

anyone know last year's predictions and actual outcome ? Great season in NH/VT/ME ( by east coast standards, anyway) last year

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weather....ho hummm. I don't believe anything I can't hold in my hand or walk in. If this season sucks for snow I guess I'll spend more time Downhilling on my speedboard (and pestering Andrew to skate instead of snowboard). I know my fuel oil bill will be lower and I'll be able to afford more toys...so its not all bad

PICT1862.jpg

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